USD/CHF is rebounding after hitting a five-day high of 0.8108 on Wednesday, losing about 0.02% as risk appetite deteriorates amid US President Donald Trump’s suggestion to end the ceasefire following Iran’s attack on ships on Tuesday. At the time of writing, the pair is trading at 0.8078, following a false break above 0.8100.
USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
After forming a morning star earlier in the week and testing the 0.8100 level, the USD/CHF pair is currently retreating below this level. Nevertheless, the bullish momentum remains intact as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bullish but showing signs of fading.
To sustain a bullish continuation, USD/CHF needs to clear the day’s high of 0.8108 and then the July 1 high of 0.8120. For continued strength, the next area of interest will be 0.8200, followed by the June 4, 2025 intraday high at 0.8250. Above this level is 0.8300.
On the other hand, if USD/CHF falls below the psychological mark of 0.8000, it could sharpen a move towards the 50-day basic moving average (SMA) at 0.7934 before the 200-day SMA at 0.7915. Below is the number 0.7900.
USD/CHF price chart – daily
Frequently asked questions about the Swiss franc
The Swiss franc (CHF) is the official currency of Switzerland. It is among the top ten most frequently traded currencies in the world, reaching volumes far exceeding the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined, among others, by broad market sentiment, the economic condition of the country and the actions taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB). From 2011 to 2015, the Swiss franc was pegged to the euro (EUR). The link was suddenly removed, causing the value of the franc to raise by more than 20%, causing confusion in the markets. Although this link no longer applies, the fortunes of the CHF are usually highly correlated with euro rates due to the Swiss economy’s bulky dependence on the neighboring eurozone.
The Swiss franc (CHF) is considered a protected asset, i.e. a currency that investors willingly buy during periods of market stress. This is due to Switzerland’s perceived status in the world: a stable economy, a sturdy export sector, enormous central bank reserves and a long-standing political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make this country’s currency a good choice for investors escaping risk. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the value of the CHF relative to other currencies that are perceived as riskier to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once a quarter, less frequently than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for annual inflation below 2%. If inflation is above target or remains above target for the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to limit price increases by raising the policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss franc (CHF) because they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken the CHF.
Macroeconomic data publications in Switzerland are crucial for assessing the state of the economy and may affect the valuation of the Swiss franc (CHF). The Swiss economy is generally stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, the current account or the central bank’s foreign exchange reserves could trigger changes in the CHF. Overall, high economic growth, low unemployment and high levels of confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data indicate weakening dynamics, CHF will likely depreciate.
As a petite and open economy, Switzerland is largely dependent on the health of the economies of neighboring eurozone countries. The broadly understood European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, therefore the stability of macroeconomic and monetary policy in the euro zone is necessary for Switzerland, and therefore for the Swiss franc (CHF). With such a relationship, some models suggest that the correlation between the fate of the euro (EUR) and CHF is over 90%, which is close to ideal.
