Commerzbank analyst Norman Liebke reports that the copper market is focused on a potential 15% U.S. import tariff on refined copper, which could temporarily augment U.S. demand and prices if implemented in 2027. At the same time, Barbara Lambrecht highlights deteriorating supply from Chile, where mine output is degenerating, reinforcing concerns about circumscribed global availability of copper ore.

Concerns about U.S. policy and Chilean production

“The fact that there has been no Lutnick report so far has put downward pressure on copper prices.”

“If it decides to impose an import tariff, it will take effect on January 1, 2027, and will likely trigger a surge in U.S. demand in the meantime, driving up copper prices.”

“If a tariff is ruled out, the market may see some relief.”

“This comes as the pressure point of global copper production appears to be worsening: Chile’s statistics office recorded an almost 13% year-on-year decline in copper mine output in May, following similarly disappointing data for April.”

“Just this spring, Chile’s copper commission, Cochilco, forecast a slight decline of just 2% for this year, followed by a 4% rebound next year.

(This article was created with the facilitate of an artificial intelligence tool and has been reviewed by an editor.)