Galaxy Digital lowered its chances of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to 50%, warning that the U.S. Senate is running out of time to advance the cryptocurrency market structure bill before its August recess.

“We are reducing our odds of passing the CLARITY Act in 2026 to 50-50.” he wrote Galaxy’s head of research, Alex Thorn, cited the lack of unified Senate text on banking and agriculture, the lack of a firm timeline and the narrowing legislative window before lawmakers leave Washington.

Thorn said the downgrade was related to the timing, not the substance of the bill, and added that the congressional competition for the floor seat “intensified” after U.S. President Donald Trump abruptly canceled the signing of the bipartisan housing bill and said he would not sign it until Congress passed the SAVE Act, a citizenship-affirming elections law.

The reduction comes after Galaxy lowered its previous bill estimate from 75% to 60% on June 9. On May 22, the company raised its CLARITY Act estimates to 75%.

The CLARITY Act is scheduled for a hearing in the House of Representatives on July 17. The bill aims to establish the first regulatory framework for digital assets in the US, but has been met with criticism. It cleared the Senate Banking Committee in May, with a majority of Democrats and the banking industry rejecting the decision, arguing it would allow crypto companies to offer stablecoin profits without facing the same requirements as customary financial institutions.

source: Alex Thorn

Congressional calendar limits cryptocurrency bill

The latest cut reflects growing concerns that even a bill with bipartisan support might not get enough votes on a crowded Senate calendar.

Schedule of legislative work of the Senate. Source: Senate.gov

The U.S. Senate has entered the statehouse period from Monday through July 10. Under the legislation, the Senate is also scheduled to begin its customary five-week August recess on Aug. 8, before returning to Washington on Sept. 14. schedule.

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Thorn said the field of candidates for the bill was dwindling rapidly, adding that the SAVE Act debate “adds another contentious, leadership-consuming fight to an already crowded queue.”

He added that the Senate is also working on two unfinished projects, including Art. 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA), for which the House has not reauthorized, and the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year 2027, which is considered mandatory legislation and often the subject of political debate.

In early June, over 200 cryptocurrency companies and organizations wrote in a letter urging the U.S. Senate to pass the CLARITY Act common by the crypto lobby group Stand With Crypto.

Later in June, a group of law enforcement organizations and a coalition of Catholic organizations achieved raises concerns among White House officials that the CLARITY Act could create oversight gaps for illegal activity.

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