According to CryptoQuant, an increasing number of Bitcoin holders are seeing their investments turn red as the holding structure of major cohorts continues to deteriorate.
Annual growth in account balances of whales holding between 1,000 and 10,000 Bitcoin (BTC) turned negative in the fastest decline this year, CryptoQuant said in report on Thursday.
Monthly growth has remained steady since February, suggesting a shift from accumulation to gentle distribution reflecting a bear market in 2022, he added.
Bitcoin “dolphins,” which hold 100 to 1,000 BTC and are dominated by exchange-traded funds and corporate treasuries, continue to grow year over year, but growth has slowed dramatically.
Monthly balance growth is close to zero in both cohorts, with the dolphin balance seeing consecutive lower highs since September 2025, CryptoQuant claims. Historically, these periods have preceded “sustained price weakness” because these cohorts collectively represent “a major source of structural demand support in Bitcoin markets,” he added.
The weakening of the holding structure comes as the cryptocurrency bear market deepens amid growing macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds.
CryptoQuant said the supply of long-term holders has reached a recent record of 15.8 million BTC, but this is a bearish setup, signaling a lack of recent market entrants.
HashKey Group researcher Tim Sun told Cointelegraph that since Bitcoin retreated from its high in October, “the highest share of supply in unrealized losses once reached 50%, marking the highest level since the bottom of the bear market in 2022.”
“Compared to the on-chain realized price, the absolute low territory could be $40,000 to $45,000.”
However, Sun was confident that Bitcoin could see a “more realistic lower range” around $55,000-$60,000, assuming U.S.-Iran tensions do not escalate further and the Federal Reserve does not raise interest rates.
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“Ultimately, the formation of a solid market bottom and subsequent recovery continue to rely on the eventual reduction in interest rates and the broader liquidity environment.”
Darkfost Analyst he said on Thursday that the current range-bound market remains a challenging environment for investors, “with euphoria emerging as BTC approaches the upper end of the range, while pessimism quickly returns as price approaches the lower end.”
About 40% of the BTC supply is showing losses under the current scope-constrained market structure. Source: Dark Fost
At current prices of about $73,700, about 40% of the supply has been purchased at higher levels and is being held at a loss, he added.
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