Binance Pool’s mining reserves dropped from 41,987 to 41,915 in May, a tiny but telling sign that selling pressure from miners has not completely subsided. Crypto analysts said that because Binance Pool controls a significant portion of the global hash rate, its behavior tends to reflect how Bitcoin miners feel before the broader market catches on.
The Miners’ Position Index remains below historical levels of panic selling, and the Puell multiple – an indicator of miners’ earnings relative to long-term averages – is still below one. Analysts have described miners’ current behavior as a “waiting phase,” a pattern that has previously emerged near the bottom of the cycle.
Long-term holders take over the supply side
More than 70% of all Bitcoin in circulation is currently in the hands of investors who have held this position for at least a year. According to CryptoQuant data, this number exceeded 15 million BTC for the first time since October 2025.
🚨 $BTC Long-term holders have just given the signal ahead of every major expansion phase since 2012.#Bitcoin The 1Y+ long-term holder indicator has now returned to the historic “oversold” accumulation zone, a region that previously appeared before the acute rally… pic.twitter.com/9ZHwKFJRm9
— CryptoZeno (@CrypZeno) May 20, 2026
The CryptoZeno analyst said the rate of bond holders over one year has returned to the zone that in previous cycles appeared just before major price increases. Based on reports citing CryptoZeno analysissimilar readings occurred before upward moves in 2013, 2016, 2019 and behind schedule 2022. When these bondholders buy rather than sell, the available supply shrinks – and historically speaking, this has not been a good time to bet on lower prices.
A key technical signal turns bullish
Bitcoin’s weekly relative strength index tested the 50 level again this week, prompting a bullish reading from crypto analyst Sykodelic. The retest came 105 days after Bitcoin’s weekly RSI moved into oversold territory – only the fourth time this has happened in history.
Sycodelic noted that three of these four cases led to long-term price expansion. The only exception was 2022 when FTX collapse after the initial recovery attempt, it dragged the market to fresh lows, and the RSI never managed to regain the 50 level during this move. This time it did.
The chance of fresh lows has become extremely slim.
It has already been 105 days since the cycle low, in which RSI 1W entered the oversold phase…
Only the fourth time in history.
The only time Bitcoin made fresh lows 105 days after the low was last cycle.
However, the RSI had… pic.twitter.com/ej7vReV8H6
— Sykodelic 🔪 (@Sykodelic_) May 20, 2026
Chances of falling below $60,000 called ‘extremely tiny’
Taken together, analysts say the data points to a fresh divide. The combination of long-term holders accumulating near historic lows, the technical indicator turning positive for the first time since February, and miners behaving in line with prior lows, analysts broadly agree on one view.
Sycodelic said the chances of Bitcoin falling below $60,000 again have increased extremely slim.
Whether that confidence lasts will depend on whether the market manages to avoid an external shock – such as a major stock market crash – that interrupted the pattern in 2022.
Featured image from Yellow, chart from TradingView
