Demand for Bitcoin (BTC) has plummeted over the past few days as the price encounters resistance above $80,000. Analysts say BTC’s inability to hold key support levels could pave the way for long-term consolidation.
Key takeaways:
- Apparent demand for Bitcoin fell to -3,138 BTC, a four-month low.
- Weak spot activity and negative ETF flows are putting pressure on the BTC price below $80,000.
- Analysts warn that Bitcoin risks prolonged consolidation or a deeper correction if $78,000 is not broken.
Visible demand for Bitcoin has fallen to its lowest level since mid-January as traders and investors adopt a risk-based approach due to geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty.
Related: Bitcoin increases to 77 thousand dollars, despite spot BTC ETF outflows exceeding $2 billion
Capriole Investment’s Bitcoin Apparent Demand indicator shows that Bitcoin demand has been negative since December 22, 2025, and increased slightly in slow February before falling sharply to -3,138 BTC on Thursday.
Apparent demand for Bitcoin. Source: Capriole Investments
“Overall Bitcoin Demand Has Turned into a Net Decline,” CryptoQuant he said in his latest weekly Crypto Report, adding:
“Apparently demand for spots is declining at a slightly faster rate than in previous weeks.”
Spot market activity has weakened in recent weeks, and the aggregate cumulative spot volume delta (CVD) across all exchanges “remains negative amid the recent pullback towards the high $70K range,” Glassnode says. he said in his latest Week On-chain newsletter, adding:
“Despite Bitcoin remaining relatively structurally resilient, recent spot positioning data suggests that broad-based spot accumulation has yet to emerge.”
Bitcoin spot CVD. Source: Glassnode
Meanwhile, U.S. spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) also posted net sales, with the 30-day change in ETF holdings falling to their lowest level in almost three months.
This suggests that “direct spot demand is becoming less aggressive near current highs,” Glassnode added.
US ETF AUM position change. Source: Glassnode
The simultaneous deterioration in spot demand and ETF flows “has historically been more consistent with renewed price weakness than with sustained consolidation,” CryptoQuant concluded.
Bitcoin price is at an inflection point
Bitcoin’s 38% rise to $82,800 from a macro low of $60,000 marked a notable rebound above the true market average, which currently stands at $78,300.
The true market average is a pricing model that tracks the average cost of acquiring actively traded Bitcoin supply and “historically serves as the dividing line between bear and bull market regimes, according to Glassnode.
The onchain data provider stated that recovery to this level is “a necessary but not sufficient condition for structural transformation”, adding:
“Traditionally, pre-bull market phases require weeks or months of sustained consolidation around this model before a credible regime change can be confirmed.”
It should be noted that the price consolidated around the true market average for over six months, from March to October 2021, before starting a 174% increase to the previous record high of $74.00 reached in March 2024.
Bitcoin risk indicator. Source: Glassnode
Glassnode added:
“Any deeper correction from current levels would therefore result in the recent rally reformulating into a local top within an ongoing bear market, a structure that has repeated itself many times in previous cycles and remains the more likely outcome until price shows sustained continuation.”
Other analysts have highlighted weaknesses in the Bitcoin market, including weakening momentumdecline in the activity of retail investors, aggressive selling on futures markets and a weakening technical structure that puts BTC at risk dropped to $65,000 for the next few weeks.
