Bitcoin could fall to around $30,000 before the end of the year – at least according to one widely followed chart analyst. This grim projection, drawn from a related pattern US midterm election yearsadds fresh meaning to growing skepticism that Bitcoin can reach $250,000 in 2026.
A pattern tied to election years raises red flags
Analyst Merlijn The Trader pointed out Bitcoin’s recurring trend They sell out rapidly in May midterm election years. In 2014, Bitcoin fell by 60%. In 2018 it dropped by 65%. In 2022, the decline reached 66%.
Each of these declines began around May. If 2026 follows the same scenario, Bitcoin – currently valued at almost $77,000 – could lose more than 60% of its value, reaching close to $30,000.
THREE WORDS. THREE CYCLES. ZERO EXCEPTIONS.
Sell. W. Móc.
But only in mid-term election years.
2014: -61%. 2018: -65%. 2022: -66%.
2026: mid-term year. -60.73% indicates 30 thousand. dollars.
May is coming.The chart doesn’t lie.
Neither does the calendar. pic.twitter.com/qUshNbIHPN— Merlijn Trader (@MerlijnTrader) April 27, 2026
Analysts of the Capital Group have noticed that mid-term elections tend to enhance market uncertaintyas campaign activity increases in the spring and investors withdraw from riskier assets. They argue that this environment has long pushed people to be cautious.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s price is already about 40% below its record high in October 2025, which was about $126,000. Despite this slippage, high-profile bulls like billionaire Tim Draper and Fundstrat’s Tom Lee have not reversed their year-end target of $250,000 – a price that would require the cryptocurrency to more than triple from today’s levels.
Bitcoiners
Those of you predicting $250,000 in 2026 need to settle for mushrooms
This is called a channel $BTC
While this does not rule out further price increases, it is NOT a bullish bottom pattern
The Factor report reports classic chart analysis https://t.co/6nRit1xsVp pic.twitter.com/ApMM46KFla— Factor Report (@PeterLBrandt) April 27, 2026
Peter Brandt tells the bulls to put down the mushrooms
Veteran futures trader Peter Brandt was more blunt. In response to the $250,000 prediction, Brandt posted on social media: “For those of you predicting $250,000 in 2026, you need to stop with the mushrooms.
He pointed to what he described as a bear flag channel forming on Bitcoin’s daily chart – not a bottom formation, he emphasized, but a continuation of an existing downtrend.
Based on the setup, BTC tested resistance near $79,500 before showing signs of a pullback. A move down to the lower end of the flag, around $69,000, is possible in May if selling pressure returns. A more severe breakdown below this line, Brandt warned, could push Bitcoin below $50,000.
Halving cycle data suggests the peak may already be here
The history of the halving cycle makes the bear case harder to dismiss. Historically, Bitcoin price peaks have occurred 12 to 18 months after each halving. After the halving in 2012, the peak occurred after 12 months. After 2016, it arrived in 17. After 2020, it took 18 months.
Latest halving happened in April 2024. Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025 – exactly within 17 to 18 months. Now, more than 24 months after the halving, the price is around $77,000 and continues to fall. Analysts say this timeline aligns closely with previous cycle peaks, suggesting that the peak of this cycle may already be behind us.
However, not everyone is ready to call it a bear market. Analysts at Bernstein have pointed to a potential rebound towards the $100,000-$150,000 range, a more balanced outlook that neither pursues the $250,000 target nor succumbs to the most bearish forecasts.
Featured image from MetaAI, chart from TradingView
