Dogecoin’s price is still compressed to a narrowing range just below $0.1, but analyst Lars has released an update on the technical framework he has been following for weeks, which now points to a significant move coming for the meme cryptocurrency. However, the outcome depends on one crucial confirmation that has yet to come.

The Dogecoin TCT model is starting to work

Bitcoin inflow continues steering the broader market, but Dogecoin it hasn’t fully caught up yet this rush of inflow. It briefly broke above $0.10 in the last 24 hours, but has since fallen back below, leaving that level as a key pivot point that will determine whether price stays within the range or makes a more decisive move.

This is the basis of a novel chart update from cryptocurrency analyst Lars on X, where he said has adjusted the starting point of the current lineup and is now waiting for what it calls TCT Model 1 distribution confirmation.

Lars’ update focuses on a revised reading of where the current transaction range should start, which changes how the compression structure is interpreted. Dogecoin is on the charts he shared upward movement shown into a pink resistance band extending from $0.098 to the low $0.10 region.

This band is positioned above a series of rising local lows on the one-hour candlestick chart, and the projected path suggests one more push up to the third tap before rejecting. The 4-hour chart carries the same idea on a broader time frame, with Lars specifying a region as a decision range to monitor for distribution patterns, adding that no confirmation means no trading.

Dogecoin price chart. Source: @Larskooistra_ On X

Resistance at $0.10 and what lies beneath it

Range from $0.098 to $0.100 functions as stubborn resistance for Dogecoin from the end of March. Dogecoin creates lower highs maintaining a stable base, which indicates that sellers remain busy near resistance but are no longer able to push the price significantly lower. However, the price action over the last three days has led to a higher high compared to April 6, when it occurred Dogecoin price tap $0.1 as expected.

In another analysis the analyst said he tried to exit the Dogecoin position during the extended TCT distribution after a bearish breakout of the structure at the New York open. The move initially looked like confirmation of further declines, but he noted that there were two possible explanations behind the price action.

One scenario assumed that the collapse was real and market makers stepped in to lower the price at the beginning of the session. The second indicated a manipulative sell-off, possibly related to Bitcoin accumulation.

The overall outlook for Dogecoin remains mixed when it comes to technical indicatorswith 16 indicators currently signaling bearish conditions compared to 14 bullish signals at the time of writing, while the RSI is trading at a neutral level of 61.45.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView