Bitcoin now prints green candlesticks on weekly and daily time frames, which raises the question of whether the worst is over or maybe the floor is still a few months away.

An engaging analysis of Bitcoin’s price action over many years belies the growing optimism, pointing to a pattern that has held for over a decade and suggesting that time, not just price, may continue to work towards a confirmed bottom.

Each Bitcoin bear market lasted over a year

Going back to 2013, Bitcoin’s bear market cycles followed a consistent sequence when it comes to the most vital indicator, time. Each Bitcoin bear cycle has varied slightly in severity, but the time it takes to end has been surprisingly consistent.

According to A technical chart noted by a cryptocurrency analyst nicknamed Xremin, the 2024 bear market lasted approximately 426 days before a bottom formed. The cycle in 2017 lasted about 363 days, while the bear market after the increases in 2021 lasted about 376 days.

However, the current cycle is only about 190 days into the correction phase. This, of course, means taking Bitcoin’s peak above $126,000 in October 2025 as the starting point for a bear market correction. This means it is just over half the duration seen in previous cycles.

Bitcoin is already down about 43% from its all-time high. However, bottoming out at this stageaccording to the analyst, this would mean assuming that Bitcoin suddenly broke its 13-year pattern without any clear structural changes to justify it.

Could a bear market already exist?

Calling a bottom at this point would mean that this cycle completed in less than half the time it took to find a bottom in each previous cycle. However, the argument for an early bottom is not without substance. Market participants sharing this view could easily argue that the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency ecosystem as a whole is currently characterized by structural dynamics which did not exist in any previous bear market.

An example is American Spot Bitcoin ETFswhich currently collectively hold approximately 6.5% of Bitcoin’s market capitalization, with the highest value being approximately 10% at its peak in October 2025. Another example is The Department of Labor is publishing a proposed rule in March 2026 that would create a secure harbor for retirement plan fiduciaries who add cryptocurrencies to the 401(k) menu.

These are significant changes that could reduce the severity of any decline compared to previous cycles. However, they only talk about price depth, not time.

Institutional demand may prevent Bitcoin dropped to just $50,000 or $40,000, but this does not automatically accelerate the psychological process and market structure that creates a true bottom in the cycle. A historically credible four-year halving cycle suggests that a eternal bottom may not form until closer to Q4 2026.

Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com