Long-term Bitcoin holders are selling at a loss – and the numbers show this is becoming a pattern, not an anomaly.
US buyers remain on the sidelines
The Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index has remained negative in recent weeks, meaning US investors have largely withdrawn from the market.
According to CryptoQuant, the difference between BTC prices on Coinbase and Binance reflects a broader reluctance among US buyers to exit at current levels.
This fluctuation can be seen in many data points, from exchange flows to the performance of investment products.
Global Bitcoin Mutual funds reported more than $190 million in net outflows in the week ending March 27. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which attracted a lot of institutional interest during their launch, are now a question mark for many of their holders.
The data provides a baseline of the average cost of a spot in the US Bitcoin ETFs investors are at $83,400 – well above today’s price.
At the time of this report, Bitcoin’s price was changing hands at around $66,820, which is approximately 47% below the all-time high of $126,000 set in October 2025. The price is also 24% below its yearly open of $87,600, after BTC closed 2025 in the red.
Almost 9 million BTC at a loss
According to on-chain, almost 9 million Bitcoins – over 40% of the total circulating supply – are currently held by investors who paid more than the current price. data from Glassnode. The total unrealized loss on these supplies is approximately $598 billion.
Glassnode made a comparison to conditions last seen in Q2 2022, which was one of the most painful periods for Bitcoin in recent times. At that time, approximately 3 million BTC had to change hands before the market regained balance.
As reported in Glassnode’s latest Week On-chain newsletter, solving a supply overhang of this size has historically meant coins moving from loss-making sellers to recent buyers willing to enter the market at lower prices.
Demand can’t keep up yet. Capriole Investments’ Bitcoin Apparent Demand indicator recorded a reading of -1,623 BTC on Thursday. As of mid-December 2025, this number remains negative. CryptoQuant described the situation as broad market distribution, driven by continuous sales by retail participants.
Long-term holders are starting to crack
Perhaps the sharpest signal in the data concerns investors who hold Bitcoin for more than 155 days. Typically seen as the most engaged segment of the market, this group is currently selling at a loss at an increased rate.
Glassnode reported that realized losses among long-term bondholders rose to $200 million – a level the company described as confirmation of vigorous capitulation.
Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView
