In a recent interview with Cointelegraph, macro investor and former hedge fund manager James Lavish issued a stark warning to Bitcoin holders and global investors: markets may be pricing in a quick resolution to the Iran conflict – but if that assumption turns out to be wrong, the consequences could be severe.

Lavish argued that if the conflict drags on and maintains pressure on oil prices, the result could be a up-to-date inflation shock, renewed fears of stagflation and a significant revaluation of prices on world markets.

In his view, such a scenario would put the Federal Reserve in an impossible position: unable to aggressively raise interest rates without risking a recession, and at the same time unable to cut rates due to persistent inflation.

This is where the conversation becomes especially relevant for Bitcoin (BTC). Lavish explains why Bitcoin has performed differently to gold and stocks in recent months, and why this relative resilience may not survive in the event of a true “correlation to one” panic.

He says that if markets experience a deeper decline, Bitcoin could fall another 10% to 20%, potentially returning to the low $50,000 range or even the high $40,000.

Yet Lavish is far from bearish over the long term.

One of the most compelling parts of the interview is his argument that such a sell-off wouldn’t destroy the Bitcoin thesis – it could actually create a solemn opportunity. It also explains why investors should avoid over-leveraging or no exposure at all in a market driven by war headlines, pressure on bonds and rapidly changing Fed policy expectations.

The interview also covers topics related to secure haven investing, energy markets, treasury bond yields and money printing.

If you want to understand how an experienced macro investor thinks about war risk, recession risk and Bitcoin’s next move, watch the full interview on our YouTube channel and don’t forget to subscribe!