Bitcoin traders are once again staring at a chart structure resembling the setup that preceded the market’s roughly 30% decline from tardy January to early February. However, several order flow analysts say the comparison is incomplete because the underlying picture appears much stronger this time.
Will the 30% Bitcoin crash happen again?
This debate began on March 24 after an Exitpump analyst (@exitpumpBTC) sent a chart comparing the current range with the previous breakdown zone. The visual similarity is demanding to miss: in both cases, BTC was within a specific consolidation before falling to the lower end of the structure.
In the earlier stretch from January 29 to February 5, this pattern gave way to a keen 30% rally to lows of $60,000. As it stands, Bitcoin was trading around $70,000, with the price once again trading near the vulnerable-looking part of the range.
Exitpump’s core argument is that the similarity in pricing structure masks a key difference in liquidity. “I see people comparing the current spot price to the previous range, and what many are missing here is that the current aggregate spot order books have much more passive demand than the previous range,” he wrote. “A drop to the low $60,000s is fine and acceptable, but don’t expect a major downward trend as long as this passive demand remains.”
This distinction matters because the chart he shared suggests that the market is not entering this setup with the same low bid support as before the prior color. In his view, the previous range contained fewer resting bids and more general queries. In turn, the current range shows higher spot demand and relatively less selling pressure, which means that even if BTC returns to lows again, the path to a deeper trend break could be less straightforward.
Exitpump also rejected the notion that this kind of deeper cash book liquidity could be easily manipulated. When one user asked if spoofing of aggregated order book data was common, he replied, “deeper order books don’t spoof, those deals stay there for weeks or even months.” This is an significant issue in the context of trade. If the demand seen on this book is genuine and volatile, rather than tactical and fleeting, then the market may have a stronger absorption layer under the price than it did during the January-to-February decline.
Nevertheless, the short-term picture is not clearly hopeful. In a separate post, Exitpump said the order books had “turned bearish,” adding that “it was better yesterday, but it looks like the momentum is fading.” He also flagged positioning risks, saying the RSI of open interest is near extremes and that “the chances of developing long positions have increased.”
Other market observers highlighted the same deterioration from different angles. Maartunn (@JA_Maartun) excellent that the Coinbase premium gap has turned negative again, which means demand in the Coinbase spot market is lagging.
Zord’s (@ZordXBT) To read was more clearly cautious: “Funding remains positive + Volume is declining + Coinbase in deep red area. I’m not going to lie, when it comes to price, the chart looks like a continuation, but when it comes to order flow, everything looks like a distribution.”
He then outlined what needed to be improved to make the move more convincing. “Maybe a little more volume + Coinbase in green would be good. Slightly lower funding would be icing on the cake.”
At the time of publication, the BTC price was $71,482.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
