The Dow Jones Industrial Average deepened losses on Thursday, falling below 46,000, as a renewed edged rise in oil prices deepened fears of stagflation in the U.S. economy. The S&P 500 index fell about 0.8%, falling below its 200-day moving average for the first time since May, while the Nasdaq Composite fell about 1%. Selling pressure was broad-based, with the Russell 2000 flirting with correction territory after falling nearly 10% from its 52-week high.
Oil route accelerates amid strikes in the Middle East
Brent crude futures rose above $118 a barrel early Thursday before giving up gains and settling near $112 after Iranian strikes hit a key liquefied natural gas export facility in Qatar and Saudi energy infrastructure. West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose to $97. The surge marks the latest escalation in a nearly three-week-long conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran that has effectively shut down tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and eliminated about 20 million barrels a day from the market. European natural gas prices increased by as much as 35%. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Thursday that the Pentagon would seek an additional $200 billion in additional war funding, warning that the United States would launch its “largest strike package yet” against Iran. It has yet to be explained why the United States requires a weekly series of “largest-ever” attacks against an adversary it also claims to “completely dominate.”
Fed maintains interest rates, expectations for rate cuts evaporate
As widely expected, the Federal Reserve (Fed) kept its benchmark interest rate in the 3.5%-3.75% range on Wednesday by an 11-to-1 vote. But the message was particularly hawkish. The updated scatter chart still projects one 25-basis-point cut in 2026, although seven members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) currently see no cuts this year. The Commission raised its headline inflation forecast for the personal expenditure price index (PCE) for 2026 from 2.5% to 2.7%, citing tariff-driven commodity inflation and geopolitical energy risks. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged that the oil shock would raise inflation and depress economic growth, but he rejected the term stagflation and described growth as “robust.” CME FedWatch data now shows a less than 60% chance of even a single rate cut by December, a edged decline from earlier in the week when markets were pricing in four to five potential first-cut meetings.
Micron delivers record quarter, but capex forecasts scare investors
Mikron (MU) fell about 7% on Thursday despite the release of record quarterly results that upset estimates. The chipmaker reported earnings per share of $12.20, well above the consensus estimate of $8.73, on revenue of $23.86 billion, up 196% year over year driven by growing demand for high-bandwidth memory used in Nvidia AI accelerators (NVDA). However, the company raised its fiscal 2026 capital spending guidance by $5 billion to fund domestic manufacturing under the CHIPS Act and boosted third-quarter revenue to $33.5 billion. Investors focused on investment overruns rather than the bottom line. Nvidia’s likeability fell more than 2%, while Broadcom (AVGO) also fell.
Economic data paints a mixed picture
The weekly number of recent jobless claims fell by 8,000. to a seasonally adjusted value of PLN 205,000. in the week ended March 14, surpassing the consensus estimate of 215,000. and reaching its lowest level since January. The data confirms a pattern of low layoffs co-existing with reduced employment and covers the period covered by the March Nonfarm Payrolls report. The number of continuing claims increased by 10,000. to 1.857 million. The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index rose to 18.1 from 16.3 in March, beating expectations of 8.3 and setting a five-month high. Current deliveries rose to the highest level since January 2025, although both prices paid and prices received increased, a reminder that inflationary pressures in the production of goods remain unchanged.
Boeing and industry weigh on Dow
The biggest drag on the Dow was Boeing (BA), which fell more than 3% as the broader industrial sector came under pressure from rising production costs and conflict-related supply chain uncertainty. Caterpillar (CAT) fell more than 2% and Sherwin-Williams (SHW) fell about 2%. On the positive side, Salesforce (CRM) gained more than 1.5% to top the Dow leaders, while Verizon (VZ) and Walt Disney (DIS) also posted modest gains. The DJIA is currently trading well below its 200-day exponential moving average near 46,700 and about 9% off its all-time high above 50,500. The Stochastic RSI has fallen to a deeply oversold level near 10, the lowest reading in months – though the oversold itself is unlikely to reverse the situation, while oil prices remain unchanged and expectations for interest rate cuts remain fall.
Dow Jones daily chart
Dow Jones FAQs
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock indexes in the world, consists of the 30 stocks most frequently traded in the United States. The index is price-weighted, not capitalization-weighted. It is calculated by summing the prices of the company’s shares and dividing them by the coefficient, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years, it was criticized for not being representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, as opposed to broader indexes such as the S&P 500.
Many different factors influence the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The most critical are the total results of the companies included in the group, disclosed in quarterly reports on the companies’ results. Macroeconomic data from the United States and around the world also matters because it influences investor sentiment. The level of interest rates set by the Federal Reserve (Fed) also affects the DJIA because it influences the cost of borrowing, on which many corporations depend heavily. Therefore, inflation may be a major factor, along with other indicators, that influence Fed decisions.
Dow Theory is a method of identifying the main trend in the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only track trends where both are heading in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criterion. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow Theory assumes three phases of a trend: accumulation, when clever money starts buying or selling; public participation when wider society is involved; and distribution when the clever money comes out.
There are many ways to trade the DJIA. One is the apply of ETFs, which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security rather than buying shares of all 30 companies that comprise it. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts allow investors to speculate on the future value of the index, and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds allow investors to purchase a portion of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks, thereby providing exposure to the entire index.
