HSBC’s China macro team reviews data for January-February 2026 and the latest results of the National People’s Congress, highlighting a GDP growth target of 4.5-5.0% in 2026. The bank notes sturdy investment in fixed assets, vivid industrial production and solid exports, as well as proactive fiscal policy, infrastructure-intensive investment plans and a clear focus on increasing domestic demand, technological modernization and market reforms capital under the 15th five-year Planuj program.
Growth target and political support
“China’s annual National People’s Congress (NPC) ended on March 12, after a week of policy-setting meetings.”
“The main GDP growth target was set at “4.5-5% in 2026, with the aim of achieving even better results in practice.”
“China will maintain a proactive fiscal stance, with the central government absorbing a larger share of spending. This change is a response to continued pressure from property market weakness, low price levels and slower tax growth, as well as the need to start the 15th fiscal year. The government is putting fiscal support at the forefront, accelerating bond issuance and seeking to implement reforms to unify local and central fiscal management.”
“Spending priorities are closely linked to long-term goals: increasing domestic demand, developing technology and modernizing industry, and securing livelihoods.”
“Major projects are expected to be the main catalyst for higher investment. The 15th Financial Plan presents 109 projects across the ‘six networks’ (water, energy networks, computing power, communications, pipelines and logistics), as well as transport, consumption, education and health infrastructure. These projects are expected to bring total investment to over RMB 7 trillion this year, according to the National Development and Reform Commission.”
“Government finance will play a significant supporting role, and this investment is estimated to exceed 5 trillion yuan in 2026.”
(This article was created with the support of an artificial intelligence tool and has been reviewed by an editor.)
