The BP (LSE:BP) share price outperformed FTSE100 over the last year. Shares rose 21% to hit fresh 52-week highs in early November. However, given the uncertainty around geopolitics and its potential impact on the price of oil in the coming year, I thought it would be wise to check the forecasts of leading banks and brokers on where they think oil stocks will go.

Terrain

Of the 26 authors I have access to, 10 have a Buy rating, 15 have a Hold rating, and only one suggests a Sell. Barclays is one of the most bullish on the company’s shares for the year ahead, with a price target of 525p. For comparison, the current share price is 460p. On the other hand, the Jefferies team expects the resolution to drop to 420p during the same period.

When I look at the bigger picture, the average price target is 471.6p. So if this were true, it would represent an escalate of 2.5% over current levels. Of course, every investor should treat these forecasts with a pinch of salt. Even though these experts spend a lot of time researching and doing due diligence, the results are still their subjective views. There is no guarantee that any of the results will occur with the stock.

Mixed perspectives

An significant factor influencing future prospects will be the development of the price of oil. Last week’s Ukrainian drone attack on Russian plants caused a short-term price spike on fears of supply disruptions. In the brief term, this tension will ease, but it greatly highlights the volatility that geopolitics can create at any time.

Putting this aside, the fundamental oil picture is positive. The continued recovery in jet fuel demand, coupled with greater industrial needs in India, China and the Middle East, all point to signs that demand may escalate. If this happens, BP’s share price will likely reflect it. Ultimately, the end product produced by BP can be sold at a higher price, thereby increasing revenues.

On the other hand, I currently see two main threats. The first concerns concerns about a potential windfall tax on UK and EU companies. Although this would have an impact on the entire sector, BP would incur significant costs in this case. Another risk is the multi-billion dollar commitment to low-emission investments. If these long-term plans turn out to be worse than the returns from time-honored fossil fuels, investors may be dissatisfied.

Better options elsewhere

I am positive about the price of oil, which should facilitate BP’s stock. However, I agree with the analyst consensus as I don’t see any major catalysts that could really deliver powerful growth in 2026. Given that there are other sectors such as artificial intelligence (AI) that I think could see significant growth, I don’t see much point in considering the stock right now.