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You almost can’t have some exposure to the tariff and geopolitical risk in various ISA actions. I looked through my own portfolio to assess – the best I can – which supplies are more threatened than others.
High exhibition
I have a handful of shares that, as I would say, are certainly a higher risk. For example, Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE: TSM) – or TSMC, as is known – is a leading producer of chips in the world, placing it in the epicenter of the global semiconductor supply chain.
Produces systems for Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), AppleIN QualcommAnd many others. For now, TSMC claims that he does not see any slowdown in demand, and the solid demand for AI systems balanced softness elsewhere. But the elaborate network of constantly changing compatibility and trade policies is of course a solemn headache.
The company claims that it cannot fully prevent the AI ​​systems he produces to reach China. This is unlikely to be created a USA, which prevent everyone’s moderately advanced systems.
I highly recommend Chris Miller’s book for people interested in a deeper understanding Chip War: The Fight for the most crucial technology in the world.
In any case, TSMC shares look very inexpensive again – it trades only 12.3 times in the profit forecast! At this price, I hope that most of the risk (and more) is already valued.
More semiconductor exposure
Elsewhere, Nvidia is more and more at the end of things. He expects that he will exploit a speed of USD 5.5 billion in its current first quarter after announcing export restrictions to China for AI H20 systems.
This is a supply that I restored to my portfolio near April. But I wasn’t naive for risk. March 28 I wrote: “I expect further market variability due to tariffs and fears of limited sales of NVIDIA chip to China. “
Again, NVIDIA shares will probably be unstable until there is much brightness in relation to global trade. But his largest (USA) clients remain involved in immense investments in artificial intelligence.
Moderate and low exhibition
For the rest of my portfolio, the risk vary depending on the company. To take Ferrarion which they have a direct impact on American car tariffs and potential exposure to duties in European cars in China. However, the Italian car manufacturer has crazy price power, which it can bend to balance them.
At the opposite end of the language learning application Large It seems to be low. It is only a digital platform with minimal exposure to physical supply chains or international tariffs.
Of course, there are effects of the second or even the third row of all this. Global economic slowdown – currently a clear possibility – would be harmful to both consumers and companies (incl. Uber AND Visa).
Here are some others.
| Business | Level of risk | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Axon Enterprise | 🟢 low | Production based in the USA, mainly domestic customers. |
| Mercadolibre | 🟡 moderate | Latin American e-commerce; Intermediate exposure through buyers of supply from China. |
| Visa | 🟢 low | Digital payments are not subject to tariffs, but a reduced risk of transaction transactions. |
| Intuitive surgical | 🟡 moderate | Robotyka company with many instruments produced in Mexico. |
| Shopify | 🟡 moderate | The e-commerce platform is digital, but many merchants relied on Asia in stock. |
| Uber | 🟢 low | First of all, based on services (mobility, food supply). |
| HSBC | 🟡 moderate | Serious exposure to China; Sensitive to Asia and financial trade voltages. |
| Games Workshop | 🟡 moderate | Manufacturer from Great Britain; Potential risk of costs from tariffs. |
| Crowdstrike | 🟢 low | The company of pure cyber security software. |
| Astrasenec | 🟡 moderate | Global pharmaceutical giant with operations in China; Possible exposure to the tariff. |
Mine
Now I should end with the statement that I am currently not going to sell any of these actions because of the fear of the unknown. But I expect much greater variability in the coming months, because companies pull out tips and adjust their expectations.
Understanding the risk of tariffs and trading around my investments, it is less likely that I am completely surprised by nasty surprises. It will also support me decide whether any sale is exaggerated and it is possible to buy.
