• The Australian dollar moves little because commercial activity remains subdued due to holidays on Good Friday.
• Trump issued an confident tone, suggesting that a trade agreement with China can be finalized within three to four weeks.
• The Fed Jerome Powell chair has warned that the indigent economy in combination with lasting inflation can boost the risk of staglation.

The Australian dollar (Aud) remains subdued on Friday after a seven -day winning series. However, the Aud/USD pair can regain their basis as American dollar (USD) weakens due to the growing fears of the economic impact of tariffs on United States (US). Market participants strictly monitor changes in negotiations in trade in the US, although it is expected that commercial activities will be suppressed due to holidays on Good Friday.

At the end of Thursday, US President Donald Trump said that China had made many overtures and added: “I do not want to go higher at China’s tariffs. If China Tariffs go higher, people do not buy.” Trump has confident that a trade agreement with China can be achieved within three to four weeks.

The Auda received an boost after President Trump announced release from key technological products from newly proposed “mutual” tariffs. These layoffs-transmitting items such as smartphones, computers, semiconductors, sunlight and flat panel displays-produced mainly in China, the largest trade partner in Australia and a significant consumer of the export of goods.

Bank of Australia (RBA) reserves on March 31 – on April 1, the meeting pointed to constant uncertainty around the date of the next interest rate correction. Although the Management Board decided that Maja was fulfilling the appropriate point to review the monetary policy, he emphasized that no decisions were made in advance. The Council also pointed to the risk of growth and declines, which is facing the Australian economy and inflation trajectory.

The Australian dollar is fighting to maintain profits among subdued trade conditions

• The American dollar index (DXY), which measures USD in relation to the bin of six main currencies, is lower at around 99.30 at the time of writing. However, the American dollar found some support after the hawks of the chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell, who warned that the snail-paced economy in combination with lasting inflation can challenge Fed’s goals and boost the risk of staglation.
• According to the CME Fedwatch tool, the money market traders are currently valued at about 86 base points of the FED rates by the end of 2025, with the first reduction expected in July.
• On the front of the work, the US Department of Work announced on Thursday that the initial unemployed claims fell to 215,000 in the week ending on April 12, below expectations and fell from the changed number of 224,000 from the previous week (originally 223,000). However, continuous unemployment claims increased by 41,000 to 1.885 million a week ending on April 5.
• The US consumer price indicator (CPI) softened 2.4% year -on -year in March, compared to 2.8% in February and below the market forecast 2.6%. Core CPI, which excludes the prices of food and energy, increased by 2.8% per year, compared to 3.1% earlier and there are 3.0% estimates. For every month, the CPI header dropped by 0.1%, while CPI Core increased by 0.1%.
• The Australian unemployment rate increased in March to 4.1%, slightly below the market forecast of 4.2%. Meanwhile, the change of employment reached 32.2k, compared to the 40k consensus forecast.
• The six -month annual growth rate of the Westpac index in Australia, which provides an economic rush compared to the trend over the next three to nine months, softened 0.6% in March with 0.9% in February.
• The Ministry of Foreign Affairs in China stated on Thursday that if the United States continues to engage in tariff provocations, China will simply ignore them.
• In the first quarter of 2025, the Chinese economy increased by 5.4% in the first quarter of 2025, matching the pace in the fourth quarter of 2024 and exceeding market expectations by 5.1%. Quarterly GDP increased by 1.2% in the first quarter, after an boost of 1.6% in the previous quarter, not reaching the forecast growth by 1.4%.
• Meanwhile, Chinese retail sales increased by 5.9% year -on -year, overcoming expectations by 4.2% and more than 4% of February. Industrial production also achieved better results, growing by 7.7% compared to the 5.6% forecast and print 5.9% of February.

Australian dollar can test the psychological level of 0.6400 near the four -month maximum

The Aud/USD pair floats on Friday near 0.6390 indicators pointing to the stubborn prejudice. The pair remains above the nine-day interpretation of the movable medium (EMA), while the 14-day relative strength (RSI) indicator remains above the neutral sign 50-zaro maintenance continued up.

To the advantages, the Aud/USD pair could find a key resistance at the psychological level of 0.6400, followed by a four -month maximum 0.6408, recently on February 21.

On the other hand, the initial support lies on the nine-day EMA 0.6311, with additional support on the 50-day EMA near 0.6283. The break below these levels can weaken short-term stubborn perspectives and open the door to get a deeper drop towards the zone 0.5914-the other level from March 2020.

Aud/USD: Daily Chart