• The Australian dollar remains stronger after data on the import of Chinese published on Monday.
• The Chinese trading balance amounted to USD 102.64 billion in March, compared to the previous 170.51 billion USD and USD 77 billion was expected.
• The American dollar is under pressure because it weakens economic data and pigeons signals from the FED suppress the investor’s trust.

The Australian dollar (AUD) extends its profits in relation to the US dollar (USD) on Monday, supported by improved risk mood. The Aud/USD pair increased after US President Donald Trump announced less harsh tariffs on a tardy Sunday for Chinese imports, including semiconductors and electronics. Explaining earlier speculation about layoffs, Trump confirmed that these goods would remain subject to the existing 20% ​​tariffs related to Fentanil, and not earlier suggested 145% of their duties.

Stronger prices of goods ensured further support for the Australian dollar. However, persistent commercial tensions between the USA and China still have an impact on perspectives, especially considering the immense rely on demand and Chinese export.

The Chinese trade balance in March, measured in the Chinese Juan (Cny), recorded a significant enhance to 736.72 billion, violently compared to 122 billion CNY in the previous month. In terms of the American dollar (USD), the trade surplus also exceeded the expectations, reaching $ 102.6 billion – exceeding the forecast of $ 77 billion, though lower than the previous 170.51 billion dollars.

The general administration of China’s habits recognized the challenges facing the export of the country, calling the current external environment “complex and serious”. Despite this, officials expressed confidence, stating that “heaven would not fall.” They reported a solid beginning of the year, and foreign trade shows an enhance in both volume and quality. The agency also emphasized China’s obligation to enforce all means necessary to counteract the US actions and maintain its sovereignty and national security.

The Australian dollar rises when the American dollar fights among the erosion of the investor’s trust

• The American dollar index (DXY), which follows USD in relation to the basket of six main currencies, expanded its losses to the third in a row of a session, sliding below 100.00 and approaching the three -year -old lowest level 99.01. A continuous decline reflects the eroding of investors’ trust among bullish economic indicators and a pigeon commentary of the central bank.
• Michigan’s mood indicator dropped to 50.8 in April, and the annual inflation expectations increased to 6.7%. The price indicator of the American manufacturer (PPI) increased by 2.7% year -on -year in March, compared to 3.2% in February, and the basic rate decreases to 3.3%. The unemployed claims increased to 223,000, although continuous claims dropped to 1.85 million – indicating a mixed image on the labor market.
• On Sunday, the President of the Federal Reserve Minneapolis, Neel Kashkari, said in the face of the Nation of CBS that the economic fall associated with Trump’s trade war largely depends on how quickly commercial uncertainties are resolved. “This is the biggest hit I certainly remember in 10 years, in which I was in the Fed – except March 2020, when Covid first hit,” noted Kashkari.
• Greenback is also in the face of additional winds from growing trade tensions between the USA and China, which endured the fears of the global economic slowdown. On Friday, the Chinese Ministry of Finance announced a pointed enhance in tariffs for American goods, raising their duties from 84% to 125%. This movement took place after the previous decision of President Trump to enhance the tariffs to Chinese imports to 145%.
• The US consumer price indicator (CPI) softened 2.4% year -on -year in March, compared to 2.8% in February and below the market forecast 2.6%. Core CPI, which excludes the prices of food and energy, increased by 2.8% per year, compared to 3.1% earlier and there are 3.0% estimates. For every month, the CPI header dropped by 0.1%, while CPI Core increased by 0.1%.
• Minutes from the latest Federal Meeting of the Open Market Committee (FOMC) suggested that decision -makers are almost unanimous in recognition of the double challenge of inflation growth and slowdown in growth, warning that the federal reserve is in the face of “difficult compromises” in the coming months.
• Chinese exports increased in March by 13.5% year -on -year, accelerating with 3.4% in February, while imports dropped by 3.5% y / y, a smaller decrease compared to the previously reported spasm of 7.3%.
• Lud’s Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to implement a further cash chain in Q2 2025. This includes a potential reduction in the base point for the first loan rate (LPR) and a minimum of 25 basic points of basic indicators of reserve requirements (RRR). According to Citi analysts, cited in the Reuters report, there is a growing probability that home stimuli means will be accelerated in response to the installation of external pressure.
• On Thursday, the audience found support from reports that Australia was preparing to resume commercial negotiations with the European Union (EU). In addition, Wall Street Journal announced that China also had talks with the EU trade head Maros Sefcovic, expressing interest in strengthening trade, investment and industrial cooperation with Blorac.

Australian dollar tests 0.6300 after exceeding the 50-day EMA

The Aud/USD pair floats around 0.6300 on Monday. Technical indicators on the daily chart suggest a gentle stubborn prejudice, with the pair trad more than nine-day and 50-day medium-medium-medium interpretation (EMA). The 14-day relative strength (RSI) indicator has also increased above 50 thresholds, additionally supporting stubborn perspectives.

On the other hand, the Aud/USD pair could focus the mental resistance at 0.6400, followed by a four -month level to 0.6408.

Immediate support lies on the 50-day EMA at 0.6266, with additional support in the nine-day EMA 0.6210. A clear break below this level can weaken the short-term stubborn structure and expose the pair to further flaws towards the area of ​​0.5914-is the lowest from March 2020-a key psychological level at 0.5900.

Aud/USD: Daily Chart