NASDAQ will fall by 20%, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Tumble, when Trump’s tariffs cause full scale correction-historical lights signal deeper losses forward

The magazine was on the wall, as clearly described in our analysis of December 2024, entitled “Should the American stock be bull, which will run out of couple? Historical patterns signal a possible end game.” At this point, our analysis warned investors that the main US indicators – Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow Jones – were similar to critical inflection points after a relentless bull market. Nasdaq 100 reached the peak of around 22010, S&P 500 at 6020, and Dow Jones in around 45050.

Fast forward until April 2025, and the forecasts appear to our eyes. Structural weaknesses observed for the first time in February 2025. They deepened in a earnest slowdown of the market, exacerbated by the geopolitical confusion from the “Trump’s Liberation Day” tariffs. These tariffs not only disturbed global trade, but also acted as the last catalyst that caused panic sales on capital markets.

December 2024 Analysis header

Nasdaq 100 enters the territory of the bear

Nasdaq 100, usually sensitive to changes in risk moods, dramatically fell into the textbook market, reducing 20% ​​compared to the highest level. At the time of writing, he trades near critical support in 17285, marking the second stage of the expected earnest withdrawal. Sales have intensified in the last two commercial sessions, shedding over 5% among the intensifying fears of long -term trade tensions.

Technical analysis indicates that if Nasdaq loses his direct level of support in 17444, it opens the door to further declines in the direction of 16836. All attempts to recover low -term are in the face of considerable resistance around 18205, and then again in critical turnover near 18440.

Nasdaq 100 December 2024 Analysis

Nasdaq 100 April 4 April 2025 Analysis

S&P 500 deepens correction, critical levels are approaching

S&P 500 (SPX) reflected NASDAQ weakness, suffering from earnest losses and falling by more than 16% from record up. Only in the last two days SPX has dropped by 6%, emphasizing the panic of the market. Currently, the indicator is testing a significant technical zone at 5151 – the second stage of the repair cycle identified in December.

If the pressure for sale persists below 5151, investors could see how accelerated declines towards subsequent support levels in 5030 and 4955. The potential third stage of this main market correction would probably cause that prices would be even lower, focused on key support levels at 4834. All recovery of the mountain would cause significant resistance in terms of 5225 and 5300, limiting, limiting Justification for lasting exposure during a close period.

Analysis US 500 December 2024

Analysis of the US 500 2025

Dow Jones is in the face of China’s retaliation

The industrial average Dow Jones (DJIA), previously considered a paradise for stability, also bleeds strongly. DJIA fell by about 1450 points compared to two sessions, which means a decrease by more than 14% compared to its historical maxim. China’s rapid retaliation tariffs against Trump’s policy further intensified the pressure for sale, bringing Dow Jones much lower.

Currently trading in the critical support of the second stage 38982, further declines seem more and more likely. If the index does not maintain this level, subsequent support levels occur at 38508, especially 37743. The correction scenario of the third stage presented in our December analysis is the goal of critical psychological and technical support at the level of 36504. Each stubborn attempt to reverse faces significant resistance at 39747, and more significantly, in 40230.

Dow Jones December 2024 Analysis

Dow Jones 4 April 2025 Analysis

Basic catalysts driving the sale

The last sale was not only a technical phenomenon, but also reflects significant alkalum changes:

• Trump Trump of Liberation Day: These patronist policies, initially focused on Canada and Mexico, expanded to a wider trade war with China, seriously disturbing the global trade dynamics and investor’s trust.
• Deteriorating economic perspectives: The growing geopolitical tensions in combination with higher inflation and pressure of the federal reserve interest rate have worsened the sentiments even more.
• Corporate earnings: At the tariffs affecting the supply chains and profitability, investors now expect weaker guidelines of corporate profits, adding fuel to market falls.

Historical patterns offer tips on what will happen next

Historical patterns, as described in detail in our analysis of December 2024, suggest that sales usually accelerate when the markets enter this correction phase before they reach a balanced bottom. Investors should prepare for increased variability and greater inheritance risk until more clear signs of stabilization appear, potentially in the coming months or even a year.

Applications and to take out investors

The ongoing market confusion is a time reminiscent of a predictive force of historical cycles and a comprehensive technical analysis. Investors should be careful and vigilant critical levels emphasized in this analysis. While low -term collections may occur, a wider trend clearly indicates the lasting pressure of the bear.

Since the markets are moving around these turbulent waters, carefully managed portfolio, careful risk management and strict monitoring of technical and basic indicators will be crucial. I will continue to provide timely updates to conduct investors through these unprecedented market events.