Sina – professor, consultant and co-founder and COO of 21stCapital.com – predicts that Bitcoin’s price could rise to as high as $285,000 by the end of 2025 in a modern analysis shared on X. Using a quantile regression model, Sina identifies distinct phases of the market cycle Bitcoin.

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The model identifies the frosty zone (<33%) as the $55,000 to $85,000 price range. This zone represents the lowest possible range until the end of 2025 and suggests an ideal period for "aggressive accumulation."

The hot zone (33-66%), ranging from $85,000 to $136,000, is the period when the market gains momentum and mainstream attention increases. During this phase, prices are expected to escalate rapidly as the train “leaves the station”. Here, Sina recommends a standard accumulation strategy such as dollar-cost averaging (DCA) to continually escalate your resources.

The most critical phase, the sizzling zone (>66%), ranges from $136,000 to $285,000. This zone is characterized by increased volatility and significant price fluctuations due to the peak of mass adoption and the dominance of leveraged positions.

Although there is considerable room for growth, the risk of trend reversal is growing rapidly. Sina advises investors to hold and enjoy potential gains or consider gradually exiting positions based on risk assessment, especially since historical highs occur in the 90th to 99th quantile range. It’s worth noting that the 90th quantile starts at $211,000.

What amazes Sina is how these 33% quantile ranges seamlessly align with Bitcoin’s historical phase transitions. He notes that Bitcoin spends exactly one-third of its time in each zone before moving on to the next, almost like clockwork. This pattern means that most bear markets occur below the 33% quantile, while bull market euphoria begins above the 66% quantile.

Renowned cryptocurrency analyst PlanC (@TheRealPlanC) confirmed Sina’s model, commenting that it was “a perfect explanation – super clear.” Sina, in turn, credited PlanC with the foundational work that influenced his own model.

PlanC also recently updated his “Power Law Probability Model” which forecasts Bitcoin prices ranging from $189,733 to $245,264 for the 97% to 99.9% quantile and $145,182 to $189,733 for the 90% to 97% quantile. He emphasizes that, despite appearances, the underlying data follows a power law regardless of how it is plotted – whether on a linear, log-linear, or logarithmic scale.

“The data follows a log-log relationship with quantile regression, while the rainbow chart uses logarithmic regression with a log-linear relationship. […] I don’t “draw” these lines. These are quantile regressions of the logarithm of price versus time, based on all the data we have so far,” he explains.

To contextualize the model’s predictive capabilities, PlanC discusses in detail the importance of different quantiles. The 99.9% quantile means that the price was above this line only 0.1% of the time, which corresponds to only one day in 1000 days – a very occasional event. The 99% quantile indicates that the price crossed this line 1% of the time, or on one day out of 100 days, which is also considered occasional. Conversely, the 0.1% quantile reflects that the price fell below this line only 0.1% of the time.

At the time of publication, the BTC price was $67,121.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com