Citi FX analysts have shared their insights on the Australian dollar’s performance against various currencies, predicting a complex future for the AUD.
The brokerage firm said the exchange rate’s recent pointed decline points to a longer-term low that was set just below 110 yen per Australian dollar last month. They predict any rebound will be restricted between the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, currently at 100-102 yen per Australian dollar.
Analysts also forecast that the AUDJPY pair could fall below its recent low of around 90 yen per Australian dollar next year. For the short-term outlook for the Australian dollar against the US dollar, Citi expects the recovery to peak at $0.67-$0.68 per Australian dollar, with the potential to fall to $0.63-$0.64 in a risk-averse environment later in the year.
In contrast to the performance against the yen and the US dollar, the Australian dollar is expected to appreciate against the New Zealand dollar. This outlook is supported by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)’s decision to ease monetary policy, which Citi said likely set a low for the pair at around NZD 1.09 per Australian dollar.
Citi is forecasting the AUDNZD exchange rate to rise to NZD1.11–NZD1.12 in the near future. Furthermore, analysts would not be surprised if the pair reached a 2022 peak of around NZD1.14 per Australian dollar in the next few months.
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