Since the failed assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump on Saturday, the price has risen about 9% and now stands at about $64,000.
While momentum is building, the price action is stirring debate. Some skeptics believe it may be overvalued.
Before the incident, Bitcoin’s price had been lower in recent weeks due to mass liquidations by Gemini creditors, Mt. Gox creditors, and the German government.
The German government is selling bitcoins that were previously confiscated as a result of criminal activity.
As JP Morgan analysts noted in a recent publication, these liquidations are expected to taper off after July.
“We continue to expect a rebound in the CME bitcoin futures position indicator in August, to catch up on the recent increase in the position indicator,” the report said.
However, JP Morgan analysts warn that any recovery in the cryptocurrency market will be tactical in nature, and not the beginning of a lasting upward trend.
“This is because bitcoin is currently too high in price, not only relative to its production costs (currently $43,000), but also relative to gold, which is currently $53,000 after adjusting for volatility,” the analysts wrote in a note.
The bank’s analysis revealed a key indicator tracking the difference between the bitcoin price and the implied price, which represents the market value of the private sector’s total gold holdings, based on a volatility adjustment.
“This metric indicates a mean reversion to zero, which limits the upside potential for bitcoin prices in the long term,” JP Morgan explains.
The likelihood of a Trump win has increased even more following the events of this past weekend, with betting odds rising to around 70%, up from 60% before the previous weekend and 50% before the June 27 presidential debate.
Bitcoin’s price is being boosted by Trump’s increased chances of winning, as some investors believe a second presidency would be more favorable from a regulatory perspective.