On Monday, market participants are shifting gears from the war between the United States (US) and Iran in the Middle East to the expected decision by the Federal Reserve (Fed) on interest rates. Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) and Gold (XAU) are losing momentum, with BTC falling below the key $65,000 level while XAU remains sideways in the $4,000-4,100 range.

US and Iran suspend strikes ahead of Fed decision on interest rates

According to CNN, the United States has suspended military operations, and the US ambassador to the United Nations (UN) confirmed that President Trump is prioritizing diplomatic cooperation with Iran.

In response, Iran also suspended retaliatory attacks on US military bases in the region. While some sources have raised concerns about U.S. ammunition supplies running out, Trump has denied these claims.

However, the CBS News report noted that the Iranian regime insists it has not held talks with the US, apart from ongoing talks with Oman aimed at establishing “maritime traffic mechanisms” in the Strait of Hormuz.

Market participants are currently pricing in a 64% chance that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will leave interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% on Wednesday.

Recent macro reports, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI), signal that U.S. inflation declined in June, giving the Fed some respite and strengthening the case for keeping interest rates steady.

However, a 64% chance suggests a rate hike may not be ruled out, especially after oil prices rose above $90 last week and fell to $82 on Monday.

Loretta Mester, former president of the Cleveland Fed, said in an interview that central bank officials “will have to ask themselves whether policy is at the right level to bring inflation back to 2%. Chairman Warsh has stated quite loudly that he is not going to tolerate inflation.”

Technical Outlook: Bitcoin Falls Amid Surge in Prices

Bitcoin is trading at $64,648, holding below major moving averages and maintaining a bearish bias in the tiny term despite stabilizing momentum. The spot price is capped by the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) near $65,067, while the 100-day and 200-day EMAs near $67,759 and $73,465 remain well above, reinforcing the broader corrective tone.

The relative strength index (RSI) is hovering just above the midline on the daily chart, indicating neutral to slightly positive momentum, but the marginally positive moving average divergence (MACD) is fading out, suggesting upside attempts may struggle with the current EMA stack.

Immediate support lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the recent swing around $63,171, ahead of the daily SuperTrend baseline near $61,034 and a deeper structural lower level in the region of the previous cycle lows around $57,835. Upside, initial resistance is seen at the 50-day EMA at $65,067. A daily close above this barrier would be necessary to ease the bearish pressure and expose the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $67,360 and then the 100-day EMA at $67,759.

Further up, the 50% Fibonacci retracement near $70,302 and the 38.2% Fibonacci level near $73,244 sit near the 200-day EMA at $73,465, creating a bulky medium-term supply zone that is likely to limit any prolonged recovery for now.

Technical analysis: Gold is recovering amid broad consolidation

Gold is trading at $4,074, maintaining a bearish bias in the tiny term as the spot price remains below the dense ceiling of the moving averages. The spot price is trading below the 50-day EMA at $4,217, the 200-day EMA at $4,298 and the 100-day EMA at $4,352, suggesting upside, while the broader downtrend from the established descending resistance line remains intact.

The MACD indicator is positive, but is flattening on the daily chart and the RSI is hovering in the mid-range area, suggesting that the growth momentum is uncertain and insufficient to sustainably break through the upper levels.

Upside, initial resistance appears at the 50-day EMA near $4,217, followed by the SuperTrend line near $4,282 and the 200-day EMA at $4,298, which together form a key supply zone. Above this, the 100-day EMA at $4,352 and a bearish trendline break level around $4,432 are the next barriers that need to be removed to ease the prevailing bear pressure. On the other hand, the lack of nearby major moving average support leaves the metal vulnerable to fresh selling should the key $4,000 level subside, with bears likely to remain in check.

(The technical analysis for this story was written with the facilitate of an AI tool. Find out more.)