Bitcoin (BTC) appears to be entering the early stages of a potential decline, with on-chain data showing signs of accumulation amid broader market pressures, according to Glassnode on Friday report.
The third-quarter report, written in partnership with Coinbase Institutional, maintains a neutral outlook for the quarter. The companies suggest that Bitcoin is moving from a correctional phase towards accumulation, while a more stable macro liquidity situation continues to weigh on the market.
Glassnode said the market remains under pressure from a more strong macro liquidity backdrop, and Bitcoin’s price remains more dependent on the liquidity cycle than on cryptocurrency-specific catalysts.
The report states that the market should not yet be considered to have reached a lasting low. Instead, the current environment can be viewed as the “early stages of the bottoming out process.”
Cryptocurrency market capitalization fell in the second quarter as stablecoin supply hit record highs
Glassnode said the broader cryptocurrency market experienced a challenging second quarter, with total market capitalization withering by approximately 12%. The sustained correction phase contributed to the decline throughout the quarter as risk appetite remained subdued.
However, the supply of stablecoins reached record levels during this period and the sector’s dominance also saw significant growth. The contrast with stablecoins signaled that investors were switching to stablecoins to wait out market volatility while remaining in the cryptocurrency ecosystem.
Bitcoin’s performance is also increasingly diverging from historical cycle patterns. The report noted that the current cycle, which began in 2022, has now passed 42 months and began to diverge from the 2015-2018 cycle in the first quarter of 2025 as long-term bondholders reduced risk.
The top cryptocurrency has also become less correlated with US stocks. BTC’s daily return correlation with the S&P 500 Index dropped to 0.12 in Q2 2026, down sharply from 0.58 in Q4 2025.
At the same time, Bitcoin’s correlation with gold increased to 0.57. The report claims that this change reflects Bitcoin’s increasing sensitivity to the same real interest rate and liquidity forces that affect classic stores of value.
Bitcoin accumulation is increasing due to reduced speculative activity
Bitcoin also continues to show signs that it may be heading towards an accumulation phase. Glassnode stated that BTC’s MVRV indicator reached 1 in the second quarter, a level historically associated with zones of undervaluation and accumulation.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s supply share of gains fell below the lower statistical band, placing the asset firmly in its historic accumulation zone heading into the third quarter.
Bitcoin’s supply structure also indicates a reduction in speculative activity. BTC, which has recently moved in the last three months, has fallen to multi-year lows, while some of the supply that has been dormant for over a year has risen.
“This combination of reduced speculative activity and growing confidence among long-term bondholders is more consistent with the accumulation phase than with the distribution phase,” the report said.
However, Bitcoin investor sentiment remains tender. At the end of the second quarter, the unit-adjusted NUPL moved from the optimism band to the fear zone and is now close to the ‘capitulation’ band.
The BTC derivatives market also remains relatively subdued, with open interest well below its tardy 2025 peak, keeping leverage low.
Glassnode warned that risks remain, including renewed ETF outflows, another deleveraging event and a break of key support.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $64,140, down 1.6% in the last 24 hours.
