The BP (LSE:BP) share price is getting a little silly. It goes up and down from day to day, depending on events in the Middle East.

When there is talk of a US-Iran peace deal, the price of oil falls and BP shares follow investors who expect lower revenues and profits. As hostilities unfortunately escalate, so does BP.

I’m holding it FTSE100 oil giant in my Self-Invested Personal Pension (SIPP) and it’s a occasional point of airy on bad days when most of my other investments decline. A bit diversification can go a long way.

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BP shares rose 4.5% last week as fighting in the Persian Gulf tragically intensified. They are now up 29% in one year and over 80% in five years. In addition, dividends bring the total five-year return to approximately 110%. It was a good investment, and yet the company as a whole is considered to have lost its way.

BP has had a torrid 15 years since the Deepwater Horizon tragedy in 2010. It’s a strategic mess: loading energy into renewables and then returning to fossil fuels. The company withstood constant management shake-ups, working through three chairs and four CEOs in three years. But the stock went up and the dividends continued to flow. We contributed a generous $750 million quarterly share buyback as well, although they are currently on hold as management focuses on reducing its $22 billion in net debt.

Threats are queuing up. Climate change risks could trigger tighter regulations, while cash-strapped governments could impose up-to-date taxes on windfall profits. There is talk of an oil surplus next year, which could result in a drop in oil prices, although this depends on geopolitics. The shift to electric vehicles could reduce a key source of demand. On the other hand, we will still need oil for a variety of products, from fertilizers and petrochemicals to paints and animal feed.

So what do experts think about all this? They look on the glowing side. BP’s consensus one-year share price target is 607p. If true, this would represent an augment of 17.4% on today’s 517p. Add to this a projected yield of 4.9% and the total return is 22.3%. Of course, these are just predictions, but if they come true, an investment of £12,000 today will augment to £14,676 in July 2027. This would be a very decent return, although it is not guaranteed.

Some 31 analysts have issued ratings over the past three months, and there are signs of waning enthusiasm:

• Strong buy: 12
• Buy: 2
• Hold: 13
• Sell: 2
• Strong sales: 2

Be very careful here, there are very few direct sellers. This mixed verdict is reflected in the valuation, which is not too demanding given a forward price-to-earnings ratio of just 7.7.

Any investor approaching BP today must prepare for high volatility. However, I still think it’s worth considering as part of a balanced portfolio. As always, investors must look beyond the short-term ups and downs and look to the long term.

Is it worth investing £5,000 in Bp Plc now?

If investing expert Mark Rogers and his team have stock advice, it can pay to listen. After all, Twelfth Magpie’s flagship Share Advisor newsletter, which it has run for almost a decade, provides thousands of paying members with the best share recommendations from across the UK and US markets.

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Harvey Jones owns shares of BP.