In June, Kalshi recorded a record month in terms of trading volume as the 2026 FIFA World Cup spurred activity in forecasting markets.
DefiLlama data shows Kalshi saw trading volume escalate by almost $9.4 billion in June, up from about $5.3 billion in May. Polymarket International’s value also rose to about $4.3 billion from about $3.5 billion a month earlier.
The tournament began on June 11 and is the first FIFA World Cup to feature 48 teams, up from 32 in previous editions. CNBC reported competition became the biggest factor influencing trading in the forecast market in June, with Dune Analytics showing record nominal trading volumes on Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi trading volume hits record high in June. Source: DefiLlama
The tournament’s knockout matches attract the most commercial activity. Canada’s round of 16 match against Morocco scheduled for Saturday generated a trading volume of over $48 million Kalshi and over $26.8 million further Polimarket at the time of writing.
The Round of 16 match in the United States also attracted a lot of attention from traders. The Kalshi market, where the team advances, generated sales of more than $2.1 million on Saturday, while the comparable Polymarket market attracted approximately $1.6 million on Saturday.
Source: Kalshi
Related: US Dominates Polymarket Political Betting Despite Geo-Block: Report
Legal battles are intensifying as prediction markets develop
The high trading volumes come as prediction markets remain at the center of a growing legal and regulatory debate in the United States.
By March, nearly a dozen U.S. states had already moved against companies including Kalshi and Polymarket, with some trying to stop the markets while others pushed to bring them into line with existing gambling laws and state tax frameworks.
Source: Cointelegraph
Federal regulators have rejected states’ attempts to control prediction markets. Next month, CFTC Chairman Michael Selig accused states to take “illegal enforcement actions” against federally regulated exchanges, arguing that Congress gave the agency exclusive authority over commodity derivatives markets, including forecast markets. “Any state that wants to override federal law and take control of these markets,” Selig said, “we will meet in court.”
The debate has expanded beyond regulators. In June, casino operators, tribal organizations and labor groups urged Congress to remove sporting event contracts from the CFTC’s authority through an amendment to the Digital Assets Transparency Act (CLARITY), arguing that the contracts should instead be subject to state gaming laws and existing gaming oversight.
Europe has taken a different approach. On Friday, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) reminded companies that many event contracts may already be subject to existing restrictions on binary options, saying whether a product is regulated depends on its features rather than the “event contract” label attached to it.
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