US users are the biggest political players on Polymarket, according to a recent study, despite the cryptocurrency prediction market’s efforts to restrict US citizens from using the decentralized platform.
Blockchain research firm Allium estimated in a report published on Thursday said U.S. users constitute the largest single political market of any country in terms of contracts and number of wallets on the Polymarket platform — not to be confused with Polymarket US, a U.S.-regulated platform that launched in December with a narrower set of markets.
“Blocking access did not end U.S. participation; it made the U.S. the largest political single market by volume on the Polymarket platform,” the report says. “The demand still exists, currently offshore and outside U.S. oversight.”
The data suggests Polymarket’s efforts to restrict U.S. users from accessing its global platform have not entirely worked, adding to a growing list of problems for the company in a fast-growing sector of the forecast market that is under legal and political scrutiny.
Polymarket was forced to cut off US users’ access to its global platform as part of a $1.4 million settlement settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in 2022.
Allium based its data on the 6% of portfolios it labeled by country, meaning the data should only be viewed as directional. Source: Garlic
Allium found that U.S. users are more interested in conflict-related overseas markets than other users on the platform, with five of the 12 markets in the U.S. cohort with the highest nominal volume related to the Iran war.
It also shows less interest in election-related markets, which is the category of prediction markets allowed on Kalshi and Polymarket US.
“American money goes to foreign wars, most recently Iran, and largely ignores elections that are traded by the global crowd,” Allium said.
Cointelegraph has contacted Polymarket for comment.
Polymarket Attempts to Geoblock US Users
Allium’s numbers line up with others test published in June by Rutgers University statistician Harry Crane, who estimated that 30% of Polymarket’s trading volume comes from the US.
Crane estimated that people living in the U.S. sent between $10.6 billion and $26.7 billion through Polymarket between May 2025 and April 2026, even though Polymarket blocked U.S. IP addresses and VPNs that could be used to bypass the block.
The researcher looked at the times of day at which trades were made and the markets in which trades were made to link specific trades to U.S. users.
Excerpt from Polymarket’s FAQ page on geo-restrictions. Source: Polimarket
Polymarket restricts VPN users by blocking certain IP addresses associated with VPN services, The Information reported in May.
Related: Polymarket affected by theft of $2.9 million, users will receive a refund
Where is Polymarket blocked?
Polymarket is completely blocked in over 34 countries, the latest of which is Spain, which has blocked local users of Polymarket and Kalshi as a “precautionary measure” as authorities launch an investigation into whether the companies are operating without the necessary licenses.
Another four countries, including Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan and Poland, are in the “close only” phase, meaning users in these countries can close existing positions but cannot open recent trades.
There are also four restricted regions: Ontario in Canada, Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk in Ukraine, where Polymarket is blocked but is available in other parts of the country.
