The coming week will bring a recent test for the major currency pairs as investors await key United States (US) labor market data, ISM Manufacturing data, euro zone inflation releases and comments from central banks from the Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England (BoE) and Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell near 101.30 on Friday amid profit taking before the end of the quarter. Investors’ attention will mainly focus on JOLTS job offers, ADP employment changes, the ISM Industrial Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), initial jobless claims and Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. A stronger labor market trend could support expectations that the Fed can maintain tight policy for longer, while softer employment data could weigh on the dollar.
Today’s US dollar price
The table below shows the current percentage change of the United States Dollar (USD) against the major listed currencies. The US dollar was strongest against the Australian dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | BOOR | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.14% | -0.05% | -0.05% | -0.07% | 0.23% | 0.19% | -0.07% | |
| EUR | 0.14% | 0.08% | 0.11% | 0.09% | 0.37% | 0.31% | 0.09% | |
| GBP | 0.05% | -0.08% | 0.04% | -0.01% | 0.30% | 0.25% | 0.00% | |
| JPY | 0.05% | -0.11% | -0.04% | -0.02% | 0.27% | 0.22% | -0.02% | |
| BOOR | 0.07% | -0.09% | 0.01% | 0.02% | 0.30% | 0.23% | -0.01% | |
| AUD | -0.23% | -0.37% | -0.30% | -0.27% | -0.30% | -0.04% | -0.30% | |
| NZD | -0.19% | -0.31% | -0.25% | -0.22% | -0.23% | 0.04% | -0.24% | |
| CHF | 0.07% | -0.09% | 0.00% | 0.02% | 0.01% | 0.30% | 0.24% |
The heat map shows the percentage changes of the major currencies relative to each other. The base currency is selected from the left column and the quote currency from the top row. For example, if you select the US dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD is trading in green near 1.1390 ​​amid a weaker US dollar (USD). Next week will be a busy week on the eurozone calendar with flash data on inflation, business sentiment, retail sales, unemployment and final PMI readings due throughout the week. The euro zone’s consumer price index (CPI) is expected to remain a key driver of ECB expectations, especially as officials continue to debate whether inflation is falling swift enough. PMIs for Germany and the eurozone as a whole will also be watched for signs of weakening activity in manufacturing and services.
GBP/USD trading subsided near the 1.3200 level as the British pound failed to gain strength against the losing dollar. They will focus on the UK’s final gross domestic product (GDP) figures for the first quarter, along with comments from BoE officials. The BoE remains under pressure to offset the risks of persistent inflation with signs of slower economic dynamics, meaning any higher-than-expected economic growth figures could provide support for sterling.
USD/JPY falls near 161.70 as USD loses balance. The pair will be influenced next week by Japan’s retail trade, the unemployment rate and the Tankan Large Manufacturing Index, the latter of which will be particularly critical for the yen as investors assess whether Japan’s corporate sector remains robust enough to support the Bank of Japan’s tightening stance.
AUD/USD is losing near 0.6890 on Friday, despite the further weakening of the dollar. Both will have a busy week, focusing on RBA Governor Bullock’s speech, RBA meeting minutes, building permits, trade balance and Australian PMI data. Chinese NBS and RatingDog PMI data will also be critical for the Australian, given Australia’s robust trade ties with China.
Gold is trading slightly higher near $4,070 and will remain sensitive to US labor market data and Fed expectations. A better U.S. jobs report could lift Treasury yields and put pressure on precious metals, while lower jobs data could support gold by increasing Fed expectations for a less restrictive monetary policy path.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil fell below $70 a barrel and is trading at $69.10 after Israel and Lebanon signed a framework agreement. Black gold will remain focused on global demand signals, especially PMI data from China and macro releases from the US. Better activity data could support oil prices, while signs of slower demand could limit growth.
Anticipating the economic outlook: voices on the horizon
Sunday, June 28
Monday, June 29
- BoE pill
- President of the ECB Lagarde
Tuesday, June 30
- Vujcic from the ECB
- Elderson EBC
- Schnabel ECB
- Breeden from the BoE
- Cipollone from the ECB
- ECB belt
Wednesday, July 1
- Vujcic from the ECB
- Cipollone from the ECB
- ECB belt
- Chairman Fed Warsh
- President of the ECB Lagarde
- BoE Governor Bailey
Thursday, July 2
- Elderson EBC
- Cipollone from the ECB
Friday, July 3
- President of the ECB Lagarde
- Nagel of the ECB
- BoE Governor Bailey
Central bank meetings and political decisions
There are no major interest rate decisions scheduled for this week from the Fed, ECB, BoE, BoJ or RBA. However, the RBA’s meeting minutes will be closely watched on Tuesday for recent clues about the central bank’s policy outlook, especially after recent concerns about inflation, economic growth and the labor market.
