TL;DR

• Geoffrey Kendrick of Standard Chartered reportedly claims that Bitcoin’s $59,000 area has marked the bottom of the cycle.
• The note cited capital turnover related to the SpaceX IPO and easing pressure on oil prices as key catalysts.
• Kendrick reportedly maintains a year-end Bitcoin target of $100,000 and an Ethereum target of $4,000.

Standard Chartered calls for Bitcoin to hit a cyclical low of $59,000

Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick has reportedly called Bitcoin’s recent $59,000 area a cycle low, arguing that the recent downturn is over and that the cryptocurrency has entered a novel phase of recovery.

A June 12 research note identifies the low near $59,375 as a 53% retracement from Bitcoin’s all-time high of $126,000 set on October 6, 2025. Quoted from Kendrick – “Winter is over. Welcome back to crypto spring.” — reflects the tone of the conversation.

The bank’s year-end targets remain bullish, with Bitcoin at $100,000 and Ethereum at $4,000. Kendrick also expects ETH to outperform BTC as the recovery unfolds.

Why SpaceX and Oil Matter to the Bitcoin Connection

The argument is not based solely on pricing structure. Kendrick reportedly links the final outcome to two catalysts: the completion of SpaceX’s initial public offering and progress on a U.S.-Iran peace deal that could curb oil prices.

The SpaceX angle is unusual but critical. The research note found that more than $5.72 billion in Bitcoin ETF spot redemptions since mid-May reflected investors liquidating cryptocurrency exposure in the wake of the SpaceX IPO. Once the IPO is completed, this specific drain may disappear.

The oil angle depends on the macro. Lower Brent and WTI oil prices, reportedly around $87 and $85 a barrel, could ease inflationary pressures, lower Treasury yields and improve the liquidity backdrop for risky assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Confirmation checklist

Kendrick is watching for three confirmation signals: a return to net positive inflows in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, a resumption of corporate bond purchases and falling oil prices. This gives the conversation a useful framework, rather than a straightforward, bullish headline.

The risk is that all three inputs can change quickly. ETF flows may remain negative if sentiment remains frail, corporate bond purchases may disappoint and geopolitics around Iran remains volatile. A subsequent change in policy headlines or oil prices could weaken the bottom line.

The key point is that Standard Chartered treats $59,000 as a macro and flow low, not just a level on a chart. That makes the next round of ETF data and oil price movements particularly critical for traders watching the conversation.

This report is based on source materials and supplementary market data. See the Standard Chartered research portal.

The call also matters because it gives traders a neat level to test. If Bitcoin holds above the $59,000 area and ETF flows stabilize, the lower thesis will gain credibility. If the market loses this zone again, it will be harder to defend the argument that the bottom in the cycle is now closed.

The next signal will likely come from flows rather than slogans. A revival in spot ETF demand combined with a calmer oil market and a resumption of corporate bond purchases would support Kendrick’s view that the selling pressure was fleeting rather than structural.