Bitcoin (BTC) is bouncing off a key on-chain support zone, putting bulls back in the spotlight at $78,000.

Key takeaways:

• BTC expects to rebound to $78,200, the actual price of BTC held for three to six months.
• A sustained move above this cost base could put Bitcoin on a path to above $100,000 by the end of the year.

Short-term BTC holders defend the cost base at $71,400

Bitcoin rebounded about 2.5% over the weekend to reach $74,000 on Sunday, with the recovery starting near $72,500.

The local low approached the realized price of BTC held for three to six months (orange), which is a cohort often used to gauge investor confidence in the medium term.

BTC Realized Price by Age vs. Price. Source: Glassnode

realized

Glassnode data placed the group’s cost base near $71,400, which analyst Marcus Corvinus described as Bitcoin’s “strongest near-term support.”

“This cohort continues to maintain gains, which provides a strong incentive to defend the level” – Corvinus he said in Sunday’s post.

The analyst highlighted $78,200 as the next potential upside target for Bitcoin as this level aligns with the realized BTC price held for three to six months (yellow). Bulls lost ground in the October 2025 market rout.

What happens when Bitcoin breaks above the 3-6 million cost basis?

Bitcoin’s rebound above its holder’s cost basis over a three- to six-month period (yellow) has historically preceded stronger gains over longer time frames since 2017.

Following similar breakouts, BTC saw an average gain of 2.3% over the next 30 days, a 21.9% gain after 90 days, and a 36.6% gain after 180 days.

The BTC 3-6m cohort realized price-to-money. Source: Glassnode

From Bitcoin’s current level near $74,000, this would mean a target enhance of around $75,700 in one month, $90,200 in three months, and $101,100 in six months.

Related: Bitcoin doesn’t need a recent narrative to recover 100,000. dollars: analyst

The signal was more reliable over longer time frames. Bitcoin only produced a positive return 54.2% of the time after one month, but the hit rate increased to 66.7% after three months and 79.2% after six months.

Bitcoin’s bear flag may continue to spoil positive sentiment

Bitcoin’s rebound is also occurring near the lower end of the bear flag, allowing for caution on the technical outlook.

The pattern has developed following a pointed decline in Bitcoin’s price from its 2026 highs of around $98,000, with the price currently stabilizing near the rising flag support trendline.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

A rebound from this area could push BTC towards the upper flag boundary near $90,000, a zone that is also close to the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level and the three- to six-month holder cost base.

This makes $90,000 a key upside target in the coming months if the bulls manage to defend the current support area.

Conversely, a daily close below the lower trendline would risk confirming the breakout, opening the door to a deeper decline towards the $50,000-$60,000 range, depending on the exact breakpoint.

In such a scenario, the recent rebound from holder-cost-based support would look more like a relief move within a broader downtrend than the beginning of a sustained recovery.