Forecasts for the week ahead: US dollar falls as ceasefire hopes support risk sentiment

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The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell to around 98.90 on Friday as improving market sentiment due to events in the Middle East reduces demand for safe-haven assets. Although the latest US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index on Thursday held steady at 3.3% y/y in April, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could keep interest rates elevated for an extended period of time, investors focused on reports that the US and Iran had reached a memorandum of understanding to extend a ceasefire by 60 days, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and start nuclear negotiations.

Today’s US dollar price

The table below shows the current percentage change of the United States Dollar (USD) against the major listed currencies. The US dollar was strongest against the Canadian dollar.

sadasda
USD EUR GBP JPY BOOR AUD NZD CHF
USD -0.14% -0.18% 0.02% 0.05% -0.35% -0.94% -0.47%
EUR 0.14% -0.04% 0.17% 0.19% -0.22% -0.78% -0.34%
GBP 0.18% 0.04% 0.19% 0.23% -0.17% -0.73% -0.29%
JPY -0.02% -0.17% -0.19% 0.05% -0.36% -0.96% -0.49%
BOOR -0.05% -0.19% -0.23% -0.05% -0.41% -0.98% -0.53%
AUD 0.35% 0.22% 0.17% 0.36% 0.41% -0.57% -0.12%
NZD 0.94% 0.78% 0.73% 0.96% 0.98% 0.57% 0.46%
CHF 0.47% 0.34% 0.29% 0.49% 0.53% 0.12% -0.46%

The heat map shows the percentage changes of the major currencies relative to each other. The base currency is selected from the left column and the quote currency from the top row. For example, if you select the US dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

EUR/USD is heading towards the 1.1670 area, while a broad weakening in the US dollar (USD) is supporting the common currency.

GBP/USD is rising towards 1.3470, benefiting from weaker dollar demand. Sterling remains supported despite ongoing concerns over the UK’s fiscal outlook and slowing economic growth.

USD/JPY is trading near the 159.30 zone as a weaker US offsets support from elevated US yields. The Japanese yen remains under pressure after Tokyo’s core CPI slowed to 1.4% y/y in May, while Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda warned that energy shocks could become more persistent if they start to affect wage and inflation expectations.

AUD/USD is rising towards 0.7190 as improving sentiment around US-Iran negotiations boosts demand for risk-sensitive currencies.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is trading near $88.00 a barrel on hopes of an extension of the ceasefire and a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, easing concerns about supply disruptions.

Gold is rising near the $4,550 region as investors balance rising risk appetite with continued geopolitical uncertainty and elevated global inflation pressures.

Anticipating the economic outlook: voices on the horizon

Friday, May 29:

Sunday, May 31:

  • Greene of the British BoE
  • Waller Fed
  • Powell of the Fed

Tuesday, June 2:

  • Vujcic from the ECB
  • BoE Governor Bailey
  • Sleijpen owned by the ECB
  • Greene of the BoE

Wednesday, June 3:

  • Governor of BoJ Ueda
  • Elderson EBC
  • Barr Fed
  • Cipollone from the ECB
  • Hearings on the BoE’s monetary policy report
  • Fed Beige Book

Thursday, June 4:

  • President of the ECB Lagarde
  • BoE Governor Bailey

Friday, June 5:

  • Dhingra from BoE
  • BoE Governor Bailey

This will be shaped by central bank meetings and upcoming data releases

Friday, May 29:

  • Manufacturing PMI in China
  • China non-manufacturing PMI

Sunday, May 31:

  • AU TD-MI inflation index
  • China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI

Monday, June 1:

  • Retail sales in the euro zone
  • Retail sales CH
  • GDP CH
  • Manufacturing PMI in Germany
  • PMI for industry in France
  • PMI for manufacturing in the euro zone
  • Unemployment rate in the euro zone
  • CA Manufacturing PMI
  • US manufacturing PMI
  • AU building permits

Tuesday, June 2:

  • CPI in the euro zone
  • JOLTS job offers in the USA
  • New Zealand Building Permits
  • AU AiG Industry Index
  • In PMI
  • AU GDP for the first quarter
  • Caixin Services PMI for China

Wednesday, June 3:

  • Spain PMI Services
  • Germany PMI
  • Euro zone PMI
  • Euro zone PPI
  • ADP US employment change, 4-week average
  • American PMI index
  • Factory orders in the USA
  • AU trade balance

Thursday, June 4:

  • CH CPI
  • Retail sales in the euro zone
  • Reduction of job positions in the American Challenger
  • Initial applications for unemployment benefits in the USA
  • Non-farm productivity in the USA
  • Unit labor costs in the USA
  • JP Labor’s cash earnings

Friday, June 5:

  • Eurozone GDP
  • Employment change in the euro area
  • CA Employment Report
  • CA Average Hourly Wage
  • Unemployment rate in California
  • Wages in US nonfarm sectors
  • Unemployment rate in the USA
  • Average hourly earnings in the USA
  • Labor force participation rate in the USA
  • California Ivey PMI

Frequently asked questions about WTI crude oil

WTI Oil is a type of crude oil sold on international markets. WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three main types, including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” due to its relatively low weight and low sulfur content. It is considered a high-quality oil that can be easily refined. It originates in the United States and is distributed through the Cushing Junction, considered the “Crossroads of the World.” It is a reference point for the crude oil market, and the WTI price is often quoted in the media.

Like all assets, supply and demand are key factors influencing the price of WTI crude oil. Therefore, global growth may drive increased demand and, conversely, faint global growth. Political instability, wars and sanctions can disrupt supply and affect prices. Another key factor shaping prices are the decisions of OPEC, the group of major oil-producing countries. The value of the US dollar affects the price of WTI crude oil because oil is mainly sold in US dollars, so a weaker US dollar can make oil more affordable and vice versa.

Weekly crude oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) influence the price of WTI crude oil. Inventory changes reflect fluctuations in supply and demand. If the data shows a decline in inventories, it may indicate increased demand, which will result in an raise in the price of oil. Higher inventories may reflect increased supply, which causes prices to fall. The API report is published every Tuesday and the EIA report the next day. Their results are usually similar and are within 1% of each other 75% of the time. EIA data is considered more reliable because it is a government agency.

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 oil-producing countries that jointly decide on production quotas for member countries at meetings held twice a year. Their decisions often influence the prices of WTI crude oil. When OPEC decides to cut quotas, it can tighten supply, which will push up oil prices. OPEC increasing production has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten additional non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

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