The background demand for Bitcoin has weakened sharply, according to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, who stated that the on-chain apparent demand rate has dropped to the most bearish reading of the year.

Darkfost by posting on X under the handle @Darkfost_Coc, common CryptoQuant chart showing apparent demand for Bitcoin on a 30-day total basis, falling deep into negative territory. The analyst said the indicator is currently approaching minus 147,000 BTC, marking its weakest level since early 2026.

“Bitcoin apparent demand just hit its most negative level since the beginning of the year,” Darkfost wrote. “With estimates currently approaching -147,000 BTC, we have to go back to December 2025 to find that market sentiment is that bearish.”

Apparent demand becomes deeply negative

The chart charts apparent demand for Bitcoin along with price, showing a shift from strongly positive readings in mid-2025 to prolonged negative demand in delayed 2025 and again in 2026. The latest decline is notable because it comes after Bitcoin’s price has rebounded from early 2026 lows, suggesting that the rebound has not been accompanied by a marked improvement in structural spot demand.

Darkfost described apparent demand as “the difference between the issuance of new BTC issuance and the amount of supply that has remained dormant for over a year.” In practice, this metric aims to assess whether accumulation from long-term holders is mighty enough to absorb newly issued Bitcoin.

“In other words, this indicator helps assess whether structural accumulation is strong enough to absorb the new supply created by the network,” the analyst wrote.

This interpretation makes the current reading more than just a short-term sentiment indicator. If apparent demand is deeply negative, it suggests that the market is not showing sufficient underlying absorption to offset emissions and support a more stable growth phase.

Futures dynamics face the problem of spot demand

Darkfost’s core argument is that Bitcoin’s rally structure can be vulnerable to attacks if derivatives activity does too much work. Futures markets can drive up the price, accelerate liquidation and enhance directional movements, but they do not necessarily represent sustained accumulation.

“This situation suggests that demand continues to gradually decline,” Darkfost said. “Without a significant recovery in spot demand, it is difficult to imagine that Bitcoin will maintain sustained growth solely on momentum driven by futures markets.”

This issue is particularly significant in a market where price can change rapidly due to leverage, position and changes in liquidity. The futures movement could continue to generate keen gains, but Darkfost argued that sustained rally phases typically require more solid spot fundamentals.

“Futures can support short-term momentum and amplify price movements,” the analyst wrote, “but sustained rally phases typically require real demand in the spot market because derivatives alone do not allow the market to build stable and solid foundations.”

Bearish signal, long term setup?

The analyst did not describe the latest reading as purely negative. While the near-term implications are bearish, Darkfost noted that historically, it makes sense for long-term investors to monitor a highly despondent demand environment.

“That said, even if this situation appears relatively bearish in the short term, these types of environments have historically also presented interesting opportunities for long-term investors who can remain patient,” the analyst wrote.

At the time of publication, the BTC price was $77,300.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com