Bitcoin (BTC) is down about 40% from its record high in October 2025, but the long-term valuation model suggests the cryptocurrency could erase the entire decline and rise to as high as $255,000 by the end of the year.
Key takeaways:
- Bitcoin Decay Channel estimates a conservative year-end BTC range of $90,000-$255,000, with the 2027 range being $128,000-$308,000.
- Bearish HODL waves suggest a possible higher bottom in the $65,900-$70,500 range.
Bitcoin’s model puts a year-end BTC target in the range of $90,000-$255,000
The Bitcoin Decay Channel is a logarithmic price model that tracks BTC’s long-term uptrend, adjusting for smaller gains in each modern cycle.
The cryptocurrency’s major highs in 2013, 2017, and 2021 formed near the upper valuation bands of the model, while the bear market lows repeatedly returned to the lower support zone.
BTC/USD price behavior so far. Source: Sminston/TradingView
Bitcoin’s recent rebound also began near the lower end of the Decay Channel in March and April, showing that buyers had entered near the zone that the model has historically treated as long-term support, i.e. the bottom.
According to analyst Sminston, this continues the upward trend.
“Bitcoin Decay Channel gives a quite reasonable range – a conservative case – from $90,000 to $255,000 by the end of this year. $128,000 – $308,000 by the end of ’27,” he said. he said in Wednesday’s post, adding:
“For comparison, the price of Bitcoin in December 2023 was $43,000.”
Sminston’s $90,000-$255,000 Bitcoin target range fits many predictions calling for BTC to hit a modern all-time high in 2026.
Previously, Bernstein analysts kept Bitcoin’s $150,000 target for 2026 while pushing their $200,000 peak forecast to 2027, citing a longer institutional adoption cycle led by BTC ETFs and public companies.
Related: Bitcoin price history suggests a 77% chance of hitting a modern all-time high within a year
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes expected Bitcoin to recover $126,000 this year, citing US war spending in Iran, the need for artificial intelligence infrastructure and the resulting pressure for greater fiat liquidity.
The bear flag and other indicators indicate a continuing risk of a BTC sell-off
Bitcoin continues to face oversold warnings from a number of bearish indicators, including a multi-month bear flag.
A bear flag usually subsides when the price falls by as much as the height of the previous downtrend. BTC risks falling below $56,000, a decline of around 30% from current prices if the classic split setup goes as intended.
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
Onchain data suggests that Bitcoin may not need to fall all the way to its bear flag target.
The Bitcoin HODL Waves indicator, which tracks how long BTC remains stationary in wallets, suggests a possible low in the $65,900-$70,500 range if weakness continues.
Bitcoin HODL wave indicator. Source: CryptoQuant
In Tuesday postCryptoQuant analyst Sunny Mom said a stronger long-term holder base could support BTC form a higher, slower bottom this cycle, with a key level to hold at $70,500.
