Bitcoin (BTC) counts down the final days of April with a novel attack on $80,000 as price teases key breakouts.

• Bitcoin sees its first weekly close above a key trendline since October 2025.
• Liquidity is surging as investors see a potential retest of support near $70,000.
• The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and inflation data act as catalysts for macro volatility.
• The analysis predicts an “end of capitulation” for Bitcoin as institutions strengthen the market.
• US industrial data may allow BTC/USD to avoid a retest of macro lows.

Bitcoin closes above the 21-week trendline for the first time in six months

Bitcoin may not have managed to reach $80,000 or even sustain its recent gains, but the weekly close was still significant.

After a last-minute rally, BTC/USD managed to close its weekly candle just above a key trendline, TradingView data confirms.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart with 21-week EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

This was the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA), a resistance on the chart that has been in place since October 2025. The last weekly close above this pair occurred when the pair was trading at almost $115,000.

How – Cointelegraph reportedThe 21-week EMA was already in the crosshairs of a trader and analyst from Rekt Capital.

A weekly close above that value, he argued last week, was a necessary condition to avoid a retest of the $73,000 support level.

“Unless BTC is able to reclaim the 21-week EMA as support… Then this EMA could actually force BTC to test again after breaking out of the Double Bottom price high that broke out last week,” he stated. he said X followers

BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X

The 21-week EMA is currently at the upper end of Bitcoin’s bullish support band, along with the 20-week elementary moving average (SMA) at $76,550.

It was similar in October last year when the price ended the week’s close completely above two of the band’s trend lines.

Last week, trader Daan Crypto Trades he said that such an event “may confirm the end of the downtrend and further rebound.”

BTC/USD weekly chart with bullish support band. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Liquidity is driving BTC price action on low time frames

In miniature time frames, the BTC price landscape offers mixed signals for investors.

As overall strength continues despite geopolitical uncertainty, bulls continue to struggle to regain key support lines.

“There has been a lot of momentum in USDBTC lately, but there are a few key levels to consider,” commented cryptocurrency trader Michaël van de Poppe in his latest analysis on X.

Van de Poppe said a break through $79,000 paves the way for levels up to $100,000, but that “will take some time.”

“If there is no clear breakout at the level of $79,000, it would not be surprising to expect some period of consolidation before the next resistance test,” he argued.

“Then I prefer to maintain the level I would like to maintain: over $73,500.”

BTC/USDT six-hour chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X

Before, – Cointelegraph reported regarding expectations for a novel drop in BTC prices and even novel macro lows.

Van de Poppe added that this outcome could occur if the $73,000 area fails.

Continuing, CrypNuevo trader suggested that a liquidity grab could result in a $70,000-$80,000 trip to the lower end of the corridor.

As CoinGlass data shows, after the weekly close, BTC/USD liquidated tardy miniature positions above $79,000 before moving sharply lower, liquidating newly placed long positions.

24-hour BTC liquidation heat map. Source: CoinGlass

“The price may first take an upward liquidation in the deviation from the range highs and then move lower at the mid-$70,000 range,” CrypNuevo predicted.

He added that both $70,000 and $80,000 offer an “interesting number” of potential liquidations.

BTC liquidation heat map. Source: CrypNuevo/X

Fed Powell’s latest FOMC meeting brings a warning to stock markets

With markets still unsure of the U.S.-Iran war roadmap, risk appetite is nonetheless “returning,” according to the analysis.

This week began with hope for further negotiations to end the conflict, this time thanks to an Iranian proposal.

Bitcoin seemed to find some relief in the news, hitting novel multi-month highs before quickly rebounding.

“The risk appetite in this market continues to grow rapidly,” wrote trading source The Kobeissi Letter X’s answer as BTC/USD approached $79,500.

Macroeconomic volatility will continue in the coming days, also due to macroeconomic events in the US.

The next decision of the Federal Reserve will be made on Wednesday changes in interest ratesand markets will follow Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference for clues about future policy.

Fed target rate expectations for Wednesday’s FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME Group’s FedWatch tool

The war has added novel inflation risks for the United States, and Thursday’s release of the Fed’s “preferred” inflation gauge should reflect its impact on the trend.

This week is also the last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) with Powell as chairman, before the expected takeover by Kevin Warsh.

“New Fed chairs have long welcomed market volatility,” noted trading firm Mosaic Asset Company in the latest edition of its regular analysis series. Market Mosaic.

The accompanying chart shows that the average decline in the S&P 500 in the year the novel Fed chairman takes office is 20%.

S&P 500 cuts under novel Fed chairmen. Source: Mosaic Asset Company

BTC price analysis indicates a “structural bottom”.

Bitcoin near $80,000 has led analysts to suggest that the “end of capitulation” has already arrived.

In one of his own Quick Take In Monday’s blog posts, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant pointed to institutional investors as a key supporter during the 2026 bear market.

“During the Hormuz shock, large investors refused to sell their Bitcoins and the derivatives panic was irrelevant because institutional belief was already established,” concluded the GugaOnChain specialist.

In early February, CryptoQuant argued when BTC/USD briefly dropped to almost $60,000The “purge” among low-confidence investors had been going on for several months.

“Operators took profits by clearing weak hands and withdrawing support to $54.5K,” GugaOnChain continued, referring to Bitcoin investors’ average cost basis, also known as the realized price.

“In practice: a retailer who had paid a speculative premium of $90,000 went into absolute panic with the free fall. Forced to sell at a loss, he returned his Bitcoin to Smart Money in the $62,000 zone, establishing early support above the fair price.”

Bitcoin realized price data (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

CryptoQuant described the “peak” of the process that occurred in February and the recovery has been ongoing since then.

“The peak of this purge occurred on February 5, 2026, consolidating the zero point of this bear market. With a spot price of $62.8K and a realized price (RP) of $55.3K, the deviation was only 1.34%,” GugaOnChain explained, calling it a “structural bottom.”

“Unlike the complete capitulation in 2022, when the price exceeded the network base, this time the panic stuck 13% away from the Wall. Institutional capital erected a concrete floor in front of the abyss, halfheartedly exhausting investors’ selling power.”

Bitcoin realized price data sorted by the date the coins moved on-chain. Source: CryptoQuant

US macro data could save Bitcoin from novel bear market lows

Throughout all of the current macro volatility, the US Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) has formed a key growth catalyst for crypto and risk assets.

Related: Bitcoin Bull Score Hits Six-Month High as Fears of a 2022 Bear Market Continue

This situation will continue with PMI enters the “expansion” phase. for the first time since 2022

For commentator Matthew Hyland, this now has implications for Bitcoin’s price action for the rest of 2026. In this bear market year, BTC/USD should bottom out in Q4, just like it did in 2022 – but PMI should change the landscape.

“Due to the strength of the PMI expansion driver and over 10 other signals, I do not think the ‘4-year cycle’ will work as most expect,” he said. he wrote on X

BTC/USD vs. US PMI data. Source: Matthew Hyland/X

Instead of breaking its February lows, Bitcoin should instead hit a “higher low” near $60,000, contrary to most expectations. To support this claim, Hyland referred to “over 10 signals” that a novel bottom is already in place.

“My annulment would be a serious black swan, something worse than the last few months, however black swans are NOT likely so the risk of annulment is low and it is not favorable,” he added.