Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards says Bitcoin could be set for a acute upward decline if the network shows real progress in post-quantum security. In the Bitcoin Suisse AG podcast with Dominik Weibel and Luca Gnos, Edwards argued that Bitcoin’s recent indigent performance, delicate sentiment and institutional fluctuations suggest that quantum risk may already be partially reflected in the market.

Edwards framed current setup as one of the strongest Bitcoin opportunity zones in months, but with a major caveat. He said Bitcoin has “completely flipped the script” after a nine-month downtrend, showing relative strength against stocks and gold even as geopolitical risks, oil market concerns and macroeconomic uncertainty remain elevated.

“Bitcoin, which has been in a massive downtrend for the last nine months, has completely changed the script in the last two to three weeks,” Edwards said. “In my experience, these are very strong signals that you usually hear once every few years.”

Quantum risk is now crucial for Bitcoin

According to Edwards, the main variable is no longer the classic four-year cycle, the supply of miners, or even short-term macroeconomic volatility. The issue is whether Bitcoin can demonstrate a credible move towards quantum-resistant signatures before the window of perceived threat narrows even further.

Edwards said he remains constructive on Bitcoin as an investment because the asset has already been heavily discounted. However, he was open about the long-term risks if Bitcoin Core contributors and the broader ecosystem continue to treat quantum security as a distant issue.

“I’m constructive and optimistic from an investor point of view because we had such large discounts,” he said. “Today it’s fully priced for risk and even more. To me that means it’s a good opportunity in the near future.”

However, this possibility is conditional. Edwards expressed concern that Bitcoin’s current cryptographic assumptions could become a live market issue before the network completes the long process of developing, agreeing on and implementing post-quantum updates.

“If we do nothing for two years, I probably won’t have any Bitcoin,” Edwards said. “Some of these things have time limits.”

Edwards criticized what he sees as complacency among parts of the Bitcoin developer community. While he acknowledged that some preparatory work had been done, including references to BIP 360, he argued that Bitcoin still lacks a concrete migration path for post-quantum signatures and coins that may remain exposed.

“Some of the biggest key developers have recently said it’s not even our top 100 priorities,” Edwards said. “And I just think: how? For me, this is the only priority Bitcoin should have. Nothing else matters.”

He said the technical problem was solvable but not negligible. Post-quantum signature schemes may become larger, raising questions about block space, bandwidth, wallet migration, and dealing with dormant coins. Edwards also highlighted the unresolved problem of lost coins, including legacy products that could become vulnerable to attacks if sufficiently powerful quantum computers emerge before going network-wide.

Its fundamental case is not that Bitcoin fails. Rather, he expects mounting pressure from institutions, Ethereum’s quantum-readiness work and Bitcoin-focused companies to ultimately force progress. He described all the clear signals from Bitcoin Core’s core contributors that quantum resistance is becoming a earnest priority as a potential catalyst.

“I think as soon as there is interest in implementing code to improve Bitcoin, we will raise the price again and that risk will go away,” Edwards said. “I think if we can get traction on quantum technology, we could very quickly reach a new all-time record. If we don’t do that, we may not reach it.”

Bitcoin metrics signal value

Edwards said that outside of quants, several Capriole indicators point to Bitcoin trading in the deep value zone. He cited Capriole’s energy value model, which he said pegged Bitcoin’s fair value at around $115,000, representing a roughly 43% discount at the time of discussion. He also pointed to discounted readings on metrics such as NVT vigorous range, Yardstick, MVRV Z-score and mining-related metrics.

Still, Edwards stressed that extraction rates matter less than they used to. In his view, institutional demand from ETF funds and treasury companies has become the dominant supply and demand force. He said institutional buying has recently returned to positive territory while the supply of long-term bondholders has started to escalate after a long period of selling.

He argued that this connection was consistent with sellers being exhausted. It also helps explain why Bitcoin held up despite the delicate sentiment.

In the near term, Edwards pointed to $71,000 as a key level and said Bitcoin could rise towards $80,000 to $82,000 if current strength continues. He believes a weekly or monthly close below $71,000 would be a challenge for this setup.

At the time of publication, the BTC price was $77,629.

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