Bitcoin spent April stage of recovery its March lows, briefly climbing back above $79,000. However, not everyone is convinced of recovery, and some analysts believe it is merely a mid-bear market rally before a deeper correction.
One such analyst is the one who previously predicted an upcoming peak in July 2025. Now the same analyst predicts how far the price of Bitcoin has to fall before this happens. hits the real bottom.
The analyst uses the previous top model to predict Bitcoin’s bottom
Killa cryptocurrency analyst presented a forecast for the peak of the cycle of $121,362 in June 2025. This call was made a few months before Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $126,100 in October 2025 and was only down about 3.9%. Now, using the same analytical framework that generated this call, Killa has inverted the model towards flaws.
The principle of projection is that each subsequent Bitcoin market cycle generates a smaller multiple relative to the bottom of the previous cycle, reflecting the maturation of the asset. Its five-cycle data shows that the high-to-low multiple dropped from 15.50x in cycle 1 to 7.64x, then 6.26x, and then 4.47x in cycle 4, where Bitcoin peaked at $69,800 before hitting a low of $15,600.
Using the same reduction rate, Killa projects a current cycle multiple of 3.25x, dividing the top of the cycle of $126,100 to get a lower target base amount of $38,800.
To account for the 5% variance that wiped out his highest forecast, he added two upside scenarios at $40,740 and $42,680. Even at the top of this range, Bitcoin would still be well below the $60,000 level, which some market participants considered the bottom of the correction.
Bitcoin price chart. Source: @KillaXBT on X
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $78,015, which means a move to $42,680 would still require a decline of around 45%, while a further decline to $38,800 would be close to a 50% correction from current prices.
Three years up, one year down
Killa’s bottom projection is supported by a separate analysis by a CryptoBullet analyst who approached the bottom issue from the point of view of symmetry.
CryptoBullet Bitcoin weekly chart characterized the current cycle as a five-wave Elliott Wave beginning in behind schedule 2022, with Wave 5 ending in October 2025 at around $126,000. The next correction, marked in blue as the WXY corrective structure, projects the final portion of Wave Y to fall below $50,000 to $45,000.
Bitcoin weekly chart. Source: @CryptoBullet1 on X
According to the analyst, the three-year price escalate, from a low in November 2022 to a peak in 2025, cannot be reasonably corrected in less than a year of decline. The current bear phase is shown to extend into the second half of 2026 before the lower structure can be completed.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
