According to Alex Thorn, head of firm-wide research at investment firm Galaxy, the current Bitcoin (BTC) market cycle is “dramatically” weaker than the previous three cycles.
Thorn compared price action since Bitcoin’s April 2024 halving to cycles that began in 2012, 2016 and 2020; the current cycle shows significantly reduced volatility and lower growth. The all-time high above $125,000 on October 5, 2025 was only 97% above the 2024 halving price of approximately $63,000.
BTC price increased by approximately 9,294% during the 2012 halving cycle, reaching a high of approximately $1,163, and increased by approximately 2,950% during the 2016 halving cycle, reaching a high of approximately $19,891. The 2020 halving saw prices augment by approximately 761%.
“Cycle four performs significantly worse than previous cycles” – Thorn he said in a post on X, asking, “Is this the new normal or the new normal until it’s not?”
The decreasing volatility with each successive BTC halving cycle suggests that conventional market dynamics are changing and that the BTC price may begin to be more influenced by other factors, rather than halving or four-year market theory.
Bitcoin’s 30-day volatility index, which rose to 9.64% on April 2, 2020, has not exceeded 3.11% in the current cycle, with the last reading taking place on August 24, 2024. At last glance, the latest 30-day estimate for this volatility index is 1.75%, according to Bitbo data.
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Critics say current cycle results ignore premature all-time high before 2024 halving
BTC then peaked above $70,000 in March 2024 – a month before the April 2024 halving.
The approval of spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) in the United States in January 2024 was a major catalyst for the price pump.
This historical anomaly of BTC hitting a fresh all-time high before the halving has skewed prices in the current cycle, critics of Thorn’s analysis he said.
Bitcoin declines have also become less severe as volatility has declined, according to Fidelity Digital Assets.
According to Zack Wainwright, research analyst at Fidelity Digital Assets, previous Bitcoin bear markets have seen declines of 80% to 90%.
However, Bitcoin’s fall to $60,000 from its record high above $125,000 represents a decline just north of 50%, Fidelity analysis noted.
In March, Jan van Eck, CEO of asset management company VanEck, said that BTC was close to hitting a low and expected the price to start gradually rising again in 2026.
Finally, according to TradingView data, the largest cryptocurrency was trading at around $74,703, up almost 5% over the past seven days.
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