XRP has regained key price levels and is currently testing resistance as the market heads towards what looks like a decisive move. The price is accelerating – from $1.41 at the time of the data snapshot to over $1.45 shortly thereafter – and the momentum is attracting attention. However, XWIN Research Japan’s analysis proves that the force behind this move is different from what has fueled XRP’s gains in the past, and that difference is worth understanding.
The report identified what it describes as a sporadic structural discrepancy. Stock speculation dominates most cryptocurrency markets. Trading volume on centralized exchanges is typically 10x, 20x, sometimes 50x higher than the actual on-chain utility. The assumption embedded in most cryptocurrency price analyzes is that speculation is the engine and real usage is the passenger.
In the case of XRP, this indicator compressed to 1.75. The on-chain settlement volume is 291 million XRP. The total speculative volume is 510 million. The gap between the casino and the infrastructure has almost disappeared. In the context of how cryptocurrency markets normally operate, this is truly remarkable.
This suggests that momentum-chasing investors are not putting pressure on the price. She is drawn to adoption. The network is used on a scale almost corresponding to the trading volume around it – which, according to the analysis, changes everything regarding the current price level.
The network is dynamic. Stock exchanges are almost empty
Supporting data behind the speculative-to-utility ratio removes any ambiguity as to what is driving the current XRP movement. Active addresses on the XRP ledger reached 17,329 in the last 24 hours – a reading that exceeded the weekly average and confirms that participation on the network is indeed growing, and not just speculative volume inflating the numbers. Real transactions are carried out on real accounts.
Then there is the Binance inflow count, which is the most striking data point in the entire report. While 291 million XRP was settled on the blockchain – institutional remittances, OTC transactions, depository movements – only 1.36 million XRP found its way to Binance. In markets where currency inflows typically follow or exceed on-chain activity, this ratio is now almost reversed. The overwhelming majority of XRP floating around on the network does not go anywhere near the sell page.
This is the supply shock that the analysis is heading towards. When coins are used for legal settlements and storage, rather than deposited on exchanges for sale, the available supply of liquid decreases with each transaction. Sales pressure cannot come from coins that never make it to exchanges.
The conclusion of the report is direct: the price of $1.41 is not yet consistent with what the online data describes. According to her, the adaptation is still in its early stages and the network is already doing the work that makes it inevitable.
XRP stabilizes below key resistance
The structure of XRP on the higher time frame shows that the market is still in a correction phase, but is starting to stabilize after an extended decline. After peaking above $3.50 in mid-2025, the price has entered a sustained downtrend defined by consistently lower highs and a break below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages. This trend accelerated into early 2026, culminating in a acute sell-off that briefly pushed XRP near $1.20, accompanied by a surge in volume suggesting capitulation.
Since then, the price has moved into a consolidation range between around $1.30 and $1.50. This range is forming just below the 200-day moving average, which continues to decline and is a key macro-resistance level. The 50-day moving average has flattened and is beginning to turn higher, reflecting improving near-term momentum, but has not yet confirmed a structural reversal.
Volume declined steadily after the capitulation, indicating decreased participation and the market moving into a wait-and-see mode. Repeated defense of the $1.30 area indicates emerging demand, while the inability to break above $1.50 highlights persistent overall supply.
This compression usually precedes expansion. A confirmed break above $1.50-$1.60 would signal a shift towards recovery, while a loss at $1.30 would likely resume the broader downtrend.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
