Bitcoin (BTC) is trying to placid down after a shaky start to the week. After briefly falling to the key support level of $70,000 on Sunday, BTC has since rebounded and is trading above $72,000 on Monday.

However, the next move may depend less on the internal dynamics of cryptocurrencies and more on the escalating geopolitical backdrop of tensions between the United States and Iran and the events that will unfold in the coming days.

Bitcoin worth $100,000 by the end of the year

In the fresh one reportmarket analyst Sam Daodu claims that Bitcoin’s direction is closely related to the development of the conflict. Instead of pointing to one likely outcome, Daodu presents three scenarios, each with a different impact on oil prices, investor sentiment, and ultimately BTC price action.

In Daodu’s bullish scenario, a full peace agreement would change the prospects for both geopolitics and raw materials. He suggests that oil prices will return to pre-war levels, roughly in the $65-70 per barrel range.

Daodu claims that if this happens, Bitcoin could surge to $100,000 by the end of the year, which would translate into a 39% price escalate compared to current trading levels.

Expectations regarding the April 15 agreement

The base case scenario is more cautious and focuses on what might happen around April 15. Daodu believes that if talks scheduled for this period lead to a fresh agreement, oil prices could fall below $95 again, as they did after the first ceasefire was announced last week.

Daodu also points to a specific positioning factor: According to reports, there are currently approximately $6 billion in compact positions worth between $72,200 and $73,500. If oil prices fall quickly and risk sentiment improves quickly, these compact positions could end, creating a squeeze. This could assist escalate the value of Bitcoin from $75,000 to $80,000.

Bearish Path For BTC

The bear scenario focuses on the failure of the ceasefire – either because it breaks down completely or because it expires without any real result.

Daodu notes that the two-week ceasefire is already in jeopardy. After the talks broke down and the blockade was announced, the agreement was described as “hanging by a thread.”

If negotiations fail and oil prices rise above $110-120, Daodu says Bitcoin will likely lose the $70,000 support level. From here, the downward path could accelerate and BTC could potentially move towards $65,000. If the crisis drags on, he adds that prices could fall even further towards $55,000-$60,000.

Even considering these three paths, Daodu concluded that the baseline forecast is currently the most realistic outcome. In his assessment, Bitcoin will likely remain in a narrow range until the next round of talks yields something material.

Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com