Bitcoin price may be showing signs of holding steady, but it’s the same does not confirm the bottom is in place. A recent post by cryptocurrency analyst @CryptoTice_ argues that the current market phase does not yet meet these conditions historically associated with the real bottom of the Bitcoin price. Instead of focusing on short-term stability, it highlights what investors should really pay attention to before they consider the cycle over.
BTC price cycles suggest a bottom formation later
One of the clearest signals highlighted by the analyst is the moment in Bitcoin’s well-known four-year cycle. The chart he shared with his analysis compares previous halving cycles in 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024, showing a consistent structure. In each case, Bitcoin’s price bottomed out after long falls and consolidation period.
In the current cycle, the key region is marked between approximately 800 and 950 days after the halving, marking the stage where previous cycles began to approach final lows. This part of the chart is further reinforced by a vertical marker that more closely aligns this phase with the last quarter of 2026. This moment is vital because it undermines the growing belief that a bottom could form earlier this year. Historically, there is no clear precedent for a bottom in Q1, Q2 or Q3 within this cycle structure. Instead, patterns from the past consistently show long-term declines followed by a delayed period of stabilization before the market bottoms out completely.
The meaning of this in practice is uncomplicated: if the cycle remains constantit’s still too early to hit the market. The moment itself suggests that the process of creating a real bottom is not yet fully completed.
What to watch before triggering gout
Time is only part of the picture. Second and equally market behavior is an vital factor. According to the analysis, bottoms are also defined by participants’ reaction to market declines.
A repeating pattern can be observed in the cycles. The price usually drops first, followed by narratives that try to explain the drop. Then it comes a capitulation in which trust disappearsand the weaker participants leave. Only then is a eternal bottom formed.
Now this last phase it doesn’t seem complete. Market sentiment continues to show signs of confidence, with participants buying aggressively and expecting a near-term recovery. This behavior often indicates that the market has not yet bottomed out.
For investors, the lesson is clear: instead of focusing solely on whether the price has stopped falling, attention should be focused on signs of exhaustion, such as sinking confidence, rising volatility and the broader meaning of surrender. Until these conditions level out later in the cycle, the likelihood that the market has already bottomed remains low.
Ultimately, identifying a Bitcoin price low requires an adjustment of timing and sentiment. Based on both historical patterns and current behavior, these signals are not yet fully ready.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
