Bitcoin is again above $70,000 after a mighty first quarter, however, questions remain as to whether the assets have already reached their cycle lows or are still holding moving along the bottom phase. A technical indicator tracking one intriguing Bitcoin metric is currently showing signs of this the bottom may not be in yet.

Metric with a perfect record

One Bitcoin metric has always predicted the bottom of every cycle, and what it says now is very vital for its future prospects. This measure is the long-term holder’s supply loss, which is a measure of how much of the supply held by long-term investors is below the current price level.

Long-term holders are Bitcoin addresses that hold their coins for at least 155 days, showing how far underwater the market’s most patient cohort has gone.

The numbers that were recorded in analysis by cryptocurrency analyst Ardi shows that whenever long-term holders suffer significant losses, it has always occurred at the end of a bear market. These are phases in which selling pressure decreases as weaker hands emerge and only the most committed investors remain.

At the bottom of the cycle in 2015, 53% of the supply of long-term bondholders was lost. A similar pattern emerged at the 2018 low, when about 45% of long-term investments experienced a loss. This trend repeated itself again during the 2022 low, with the percentage reaching around 44%.

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The current supply of long-term bondholders in the loss reading is approximately 29% and rising. This number has meaning in two directions at once. On the one hand, it confirms that conditions are deteriorating and there is still a gigantic proportion of holders who would suffer losses if prices fell further.

On the other hand, the reading is still well below the 44% to 53% range that has always been certified as the bike’s real level. According to cryptocurrency analyst Ardi, this second meaning shows that Bitcoin’s price is not yet at its lowest level, but is still heading towards bottom-forming conditions.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $71,127, down 1.1% in the last 24 hours. Its last cycle low was recorded just under $63,000 during the market-wide crash in early February. The leading cryptocurrency is still trading at around $70,000, as it turned out an area that is vital from a psychological point of view.

There is a broader sentiment in the cryptocurrency market right now lacking a clear growth impulse, and price action in major assets reflects the volatility. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 43, which puts it firmly in neutral territory.

Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com