Here’s what you need to know for Thursday, April 9:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains unchanged near 99.10, supported by safe-haven demand overdue in the US session, with expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will remain cautious on monetary easing. Markets reacted quickly after the release of the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, which largely confirmed that policymakers remain cautious and in no rush to cut interest rates, reinforcing a “higher for longer” stance.
The minutes show that officials are increasingly concerned about persistent inflation risks, particularly those arising from elevated energy prices due to ongoing hostilities in the Middle East. While the Fed acknowledged some cooling in some parts of the economy, it stressed that inflation’s progress remains uneven, maintaining a high bar for any policy easing.
At the same time, geopolitical developments continue to cloud the outlook. Despite headlines about a short-lived ceasefire between the United States, Iran and Israel, markets remain skeptical as conditions for the agreement have not yet been met and tensions persist across the region.
Today’s US dollar price
The table below shows the current percentage change of the United States Dollar (USD) against the major listed currencies. The US dollar was strongest against the Canadian dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | BOOR | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.49% | -0.72% | -0.59% | -0.21% | -0.86% | -1.41% | -0.69% | |
| EUR | 0.49% | -0.24% | -0.09% | 0.28% | -0.36% | -0.95% | -0.21% | |
| GBP | 0.72% | 0.24% | 0.13% | 0.52% | -0.11% | -0.69% | 0.03% | |
| JPY | 0.59% | 0.09% | -0.13% | 0.36% | -0.26% | -0.84% | -0.11% | |
| BOOR | 0.21% | -0.28% | -0.52% | -0.36% | -0.61% | -1.18% | -0.48% | |
| AUD | 0.86% | 0.36% | 0.11% | 0.26% | 0.61% | -0.58% | 0.13% | |
| NZD | 1.41% | 0.95% | 0.69% | 0.84% | 1.18% | 0.58% | 0.72% | |
| CHF | 0.69% | 0.21% | -0.03% | 0.11% | 0.48% | -0.13% | -0.72% |
The heat map shows the percentage changes of the major currencies relative to each other. The base currency is selected from the left column and the quote currency from the top row. For example, if you select the US dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD rose near 1.1720 at the start of the day, but is now retreating towards 1.1650 as a stronger USD and continued economic growth in the euro zone limit attempts to rally.
GBP/USD gained ground, trading near 1.3380, hovering near multi-week lows after reaching 1.3484.
USD/JPY fell towards the 158.70 zone, recovering some losses, but still in the red due to geopolitical risks.
AUD/USD held on to huge gains near the 0.7030 price zone, although it fell from earlier highs near 0.7080. The pair is weighed down by risk aversion and a cautious outlook despite relatively stable domestic conditions.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices fell sharply to $95.00 per barrel as uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz appears to have temporarily dissipated and supply risks remain in the spotlight despite frail ceasefire headlines.
Gold prices around USD 4,709, supported by geopolitical uncertainty at the beginning of the day, however, as the risk dissipated, it remained in the neutral zone.
What’s next on the docket:
Thursday, April 9
- Germany’s trade balance
- US PCE Price Index
- US GDP
- Initial applications for unemployment benefits in the USA
- Personal income in the USA
- Personal spending in the US
- NZ Business NZ PMI
- CNY CPI
- CNY PPI
Friday, April 10
- Germany Harmonized Consumer Price Index
- Canada employment data
- CPI in the USA
- Factory orders in the USA
- Michigan US Consumer Index
- One-year inflation expectations of US consumers
- US consumer inflation expectations over 5 years
- Monthly US Budget Statement
Frequently asked questions about WTI crude oil
WTI Oil is a type of crude oil sold on international markets. WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three main types, including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” due to its relatively low weight and low sulfur content. It is considered a high-quality oil that can be easily refined. It originates in the United States and is distributed through the Cushing Junction, considered the “Crossroads of the World.” It is a reference point for the crude oil market, and the WTI price is often quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are key factors influencing the price of WTI crude oil. Therefore, global growth may drive increased demand and, conversely, faint global growth. Political instability, wars and sanctions can disrupt supply and affect prices. Another key factor shaping prices are the decisions of OPEC, the group of major oil-producing countries. The value of the US dollar affects the price of WTI crude oil because oil is mainly sold in US dollars, so a weaker US dollar can make oil more affordable and vice versa.
Weekly crude oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) influence the price of WTI crude oil. Inventory changes reflect fluctuations in supply and demand. If the data shows a decline in inventories, it may indicate increased demand, which will result in an boost in the price of oil. Higher inventories may reflect increased supply, which causes prices to fall. The API report is published every Tuesday and the EIA report the following day. Their results are usually similar and are within 1% of each other 75% of the time. EIA data is considered more reliable because it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 oil-producing countries that jointly decide on production quotas for member countries at meetings held twice a year. Their decisions often influence the prices of WTI crude oil. When OPEC decides to cut quotas, it can tighten supply, which will push up oil prices. OPEC increasing production has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten additional non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
