Bitcoin has been hovering above $65,000 for over a month now, and this price level is starting to matter more than it seems at first glance. In the current structure, it is no longer just about short-term volatility, but whether the market is building a base or setting up one more lower move to just $40,000 before any real growth begins.
The next question is not only where Bitcoin will go next, but also how its next move will impact the situation altcoin season schedule.
Analyst warns of a bear case that could delay the Altcoin season
AND latest technical analysis from the chartist highlights a less favorable path for Bitcoin, one that could push price action down another long stretch.
The analyst describes this setup as a bear scenario, noting that this is not an expected outcome but still a real possibility. In this structure, Bitcoin’s price action first moves higher to the resistance zone around the $78,000 to $82,000 region, where the previous crash occurred in delayed January.
This optimism, however may be short-lived. The projection shows that the price falls at this resistance and reverses sharply, leading to a deeper decline that breaks the previous lows and pushes the Bitcoin price below $40,000. According to the analyst, such a move would delay the formation of a macro-bottom and further extend the significant altcoin season.
There is also a liquidity zone around the low in February. This wick sits just above $60,000, where Bitcoin’s price bottomed on February 6 before being quickly repurchased.
The projections are that this level will still need to be successfully overcome before sustained growth can begin. Without this movement, upward moves will continue to be prone to failure.
Reaching the bottom quickly compared to current levels would enable an earlier rotation of capital towards altcoins. On the other hand, a delayed transition to levels will keep Bitcoin liquid for longer and delay this rotation.
A drop below $40,000 seems unlikely
Even with this bearish scenario, Bitcoin’s price structure still resists a sustained breakdown below $40,000. According to the analyst, the probability of this scenario coming true is only about 40%.
Data on the chain shows forceful support tiers well above the $40,000 price level. For example, Realized Bitcoin price is still around $54,000, which would be support even if Bitcoin falls below $60,000 and into the $50,000 range.
Speaking of support, Bitcoin price managed to stay above $63,000 since the crash in early February, despite unfavorable macro conditions war in the Middle Eastoil prices are risingand numerous predictions for a further bottom below $60,000 and even some under $50,000 in the last two months.
Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com
