US ISM service PMI preview
The United States (US) Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for March will be released today at 14:00 GMT.
The ISM report is expected to show that services sector activity has picked up again, but at a moderate pace. The services PMI is expected to be 55.0, down from 56.1 in February. Investors will pay close attention to services PMI data because the related sector accounts for two-thirds of the U.S. economy.
In addition to the Services PMI, investors will also focus on data sub-components such as the Employment Rate, New Orders Rate and Prices Paid.
Theoretically, weaker-than-expected PMI data for ISM services from the USA reinforces the dovish expectations of the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the near future. However, sanguine data would be the opposite.
How could US ISM PMI data impact EUR/USD?
The EUR/USD rate is up 0.25% at around 1.1544 during Monday’s slow European trading session. On the daily chart, price is holding between a falling resistance trend line from 1.1666 and a rising support line from 1.1408, maintaining a near-term neutral bias with a slight downward tilt as the pair is trading just below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) near 1.1566.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in the 40.00-60.00 range, reflecting a contracting structure usually followed by increasing volatility.
There is immediate resistance near 1.1566 on the 20-day EMA, and the downtrend line strengthens the barrier near 1.1600; a daily close above this zone would open the way to the March 10 high of 1.1667. On the other hand, initial support coincides with the uptrend line near 1.1500, and a break of this level will push the price towards the March low at 1.1411.
(The technical analysis for this story was written with the assist of an AI tool.)
Economic indicator
PMI of ISM services
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) The Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), published monthly, is a leading indicator measuring business activity in the U.S. services sector, which makes up the majority of the economy. The indicator was derived from a survey of supply executives across the United States based on information they collected from their respective organizations. Survey responses reflect any changes in the current month compared to the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the service economy is growing overall, which is a bullish sign for the US dollar (USD). A reading below 50 signals that service sector activity is generally dwindling, which is seen as bearish for the dollar.
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