Something caught my attention on Rio Tinto’s (RIO) daily chart this week, and it wasn’t the piercing rebound from recent lows, although that’s also worth noting. There was a trend line underneath it all. This device has been around since mid-2024, it does its job quietly, and every time I come back to this chart over the last few months, it’s still there, intact, and the price respects it like a floor, which is saying something.
Rio Tinto is one of the world’s largest mining and metals companies, mining and processing iron ore, copper, aluminum and lithium in some of the most resource-rich regions on the planet. There is a macro story associated with equities, but what interests me here is the technical story, and that story starts with a rising trendline that has created a consistent pattern of higher lows dating back almost a year.
Think of this trend line as a staircase that buyers keep remodeling. Every time the price moves back, a fresh step is created. We saw it in the fall. We saw this in early 2026. And we just saw it again.
The price has moved back strongly towards rising support, touched it and is currently rebounding towards $94.45. These are three significant interactions with the same structure, and each of them adds weight to what it represents. A trend line that is tested and holds is not a coincidence. It’s demand.
The most significant question on the chart is the upper resistance at $98.06. RIO reached this level at the beginning of the cycle and strongly rejected it. The selloff from $98.06 all the way to the trend line was a market signal that showed exactly where the ceiling was. The price has now rebounded and is recovering to this level, which poses the most significant question on this chart: Can RIO close above $98.06 in confirmed daily fashion?
In my opinion, the bulls are in control for now and the reason is the trend line. As long as the price continues to trade confirmed daily closes above rising support, the structure will remain intact and I am watching this path towards $98.06.
A confirmed close above this resistance level opens the door to fresh highs, and given how well this chart respects both levels, this is a setup worth monitoring with real discipline.
The bear case exists, but requires confirmation to be significant. The more often the level of support is tested, the more it demands from buyers. We have already had three interactions with this trend line, and each one brings a little more pressure than the last. A confirmed daily close below it, not an intraday decline but a true close below, changes the picture and refocuses attention on the $84-$85 area as the next logical rest point.
The trend line has gained my respect. Until price tells me otherwise at the end, RIO is bullish and $98.06 is the level I’m watching to find out how much left in this move.
