Bitcoin is down about 50% this market cycle, much less than in previous cycles, Fidelity Digital Assets said, adding that this trend could continue over time.
Historically, Bitcoin’s all-time highs have been steep, ranging from around 80% to 90%, but this cycle has been around 50%, Fidelity Digital Assets research analyst Zack Wainwright said on Tuesday.
You can see the “diminishing returns” that have developed from cycle to cycle by looking at Bitcoin’s price behavior from the perspective of the previous all-time high, he said.
“Each cycle has been less dramatic upside than the last,” he said. “The downside risks were less dramatic in 2026 and also in the current cycle,” he added.
Bitcoin’s price hit its current cycle low of just over $60,000 on February 6, down 52% from its October 6 record high of around $126,000, according to TradingView. It is currently 46% below its peak of six months ago.
The previous cycle saw a much larger decline of 77% from an all-time high of $69,000 in 2021 to a bear market low of just under $16,000 in November 2022.
Bitcoin may bottom out in behind schedule September
Fidelity’s assessment that this Bitcoin cycle is much shallower than previous cycles “points to a maturing market with reduced volatility and greater institutional confidence,” Nick Ruck, director of LVRG Research, told Cointelegraph on Wednesday.
“This change signals that Bitcoin is transitioning from a speculative asset to a more stable store of value, potentially paving the way for wider adoption in the future.”
Related: Bitcoin range of 10k is expected. dollars will remain until spot traders emerge: Data
Meanwhile, Alpharactal founder Joao Wedson noticed On Tuesday, Bitcoin’s peak occurred 534 days after the last halving, which is shorter than in the previous cycle.
This “fading pattern” across cycles suggests that a historical bottom could occur between 912 and 922 days after the halving, which “indicates a bottom in late September or early October 2026.” – he said.
BTC is trading below key daily moving averages
Bitcoin remains below the key 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, two long-term trend indicators.
It is trading at around $68,000 at the 200-week EMA, which has been a key support level during previous market downturns.
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