XRP is struggling to maintain the $1.35 level. The market is preparing for a volatile week. And quietly, the data on Binance tells a story that the price chart has not yet decided to believe.
An Arab Chain report tracking supply dynamics on Binance has identified a reading that stands out against the current bearish backdrop: the XRP scarcity rate has reached 0.59 – the highest level since 2024. This number reflects something specific and significant. The supply of XRP available for immediate sale on the platform is decreasing, not increasing.
Coins leave the exchanges. Investors withdraw to private portfolios, block positions for a long period and deprive liquidity of the most available place of sale on the market.
The historical context sharpens the meaning. The same indicator remained deeply negative for months – recording the worst readings during periods of greatest selling pressure and peak currency inflows at the beginning of the cycle.
Moving into positive territory, and now towards a multi-year high, represents a reversal of behavior: sellers who have been flooding the market are withdrawing and replacement holders are not selling.
XRP at $1.35 looks breakable. Deficiency data indicates that the floor beneath it is being quietly reinforced. One of them will be the first to be correct.
Sellers are withdrawing. The question is whether buyers are ready to move forward
Arab Chain behavior To read data deficiencies is the area where the report has the greatest impact. The scarcity rate reaching its highest level since 2024 is not just a supply indicator – it is a behavioral fingerprint. It reflects who currently owns XRP and what they intend to do with it.
The answer, according to the data, is that the short-term sellers who dominated early in the cycle are being replaced by an entirely different category of participants: long-term holders who are quietly accumulating, withdrawing from exchanges, and removing their coins from the sell-side’s available pool.
This change has its name in market structure analysis. This is called the accumulation phase, and the scarcity rate reaching its highest level in many years is one of its clearest features in the chain. Short-term selling pressure is decreasing. Investor confidence is growing, at least among those who withdraw coins from exchanges. The balance in the market is tilting towards buyers.
The report takes a cautious approach to what comes next. The accumulation thesis is only true if two conditions are met: overall market sentiment continues to improve and the supply of currencies continues to shrink. If both hold, the conditions for stronger price movement will be built gradually but structurally.
XRP at $1.35 is the price offered by the market. The scarcity data suggests that fewer and fewer participants are willing to sell it there.
The XRP chart hasn’t changed its mind.
XRP is trading at $1.3510, up 1.75% on the day – the green candle that opened at $1.3279 has reached $1.3669 and maintains modest gains into the afternoon session. On any other chart, a daily gain of 1.75% would not be unusual. In this case, it barely registers against the backdrop of damage accumulated since July.
The structure of the day is clear and unchanged for months. XRP peaked near $3.90 in overdue July 2025 and has been on a textbook decline since then – bottoming highs in August, October, January and March, with each rally trading at a lower level than the last. February’s capitulation to $1.15, which was accompanied by the highest selling volume on the entire chart, established a floor level that the market is currently defending. This defense held. It has not yet become a foundation.
All three moving averages confirm structural damage. The 50-day MA has crossed below the 100-day MA – an intermediate-term death cross – and both are accelerating towards the $1.60-$1.80 area. The 200-day MA is falling from around $2.10, which is so far from the current price that regaining it is a medium-term ambition, not a short-term goal.
Today’s candle is constructive. The trend around this is not. XRP needs a daily close above $1.45 to begin to suggest that the post-capitulation range is building a base rather than forming a continuation pattern towards lower levels.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
