At the time of writing on Monday, the EUR/GBP rate was around 0.8680, virtually unchanged on the day. Price action remains subdued as investors take a cautious stance amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and ahead of key inflation data from Germany.
US President Donald Trump’s comments calling Iran’s current leadership “very reasonable” were largely ignored by markets. Instead, investors are focusing on the risk of broader regional escalation, especially with the possible involvement of the Iran-backed Houthis. Their potential threat to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a strategic chokepoint for global oil supplies, could further exacerbate concerns in the energy market.
Against this backdrop, growth in the euro area (EUR) remains circumscribed. Traders are now paying attention to preliminary March inflation data in Germany, including the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). These publications will be closely watched as they may influence expectations regarding the future monetary policy stance of the European Central Bank (ECB).
According to Bob Savage from BNY, the risk of stagflation in the euro zone is increasing due to rising energy prices. It notes that headline inflation may be lifted by fuel costs, while core inflation may remain more subdued. In this context, the ECB is likely to remain cautious when assessing the potential effects of second-round inflation.
Savage also argues that markets may ultimately reduce expectations for aggressive interest rate increases in both the euro zone and the UK, although this adjustment may come as a result of a volatile process.
Earlier euro zone sentiment indicators were much stronger than expected, but had little impact on the euro. Investors continue to focus on upcoming inflation data, as well as developments in the geopolitical situation and energy price dynamics.
In the UK, the Bank of England (BoE) indicated earlier this month that an interest rate hike could come as early as April as elevated energy prices continue to stoke inflation fears.
Meanwhile, fears of a deepening conflict in the Middle East are heightened by concerns about persistently higher oil prices, which may affect the currencies of economies heavily dependent on energy imports, such as the UK.
Price in euro today
The table below shows the current percentage change of the euro (EUR) against the main listed currencies. The euro was strongest against the New Zealand dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | BOOR | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.15% | 0.20% | -0.42% | 0.14% | 0.35% | 0.55% | 0.15% | |
| EUR | -0.15% | 0.03% | -0.53% | -0.01% | 0.23% | 0.40% | -0.01% | |
| GBP | -0.20% | -0.03% | -0.59% | -0.02% | 0.18% | 0.35% | -0.04% | |
| JPY | 0.42% | 0.53% | 0.59% | 0.55% | 0.77% | 0.95% | 0.55% | |
| BOOR | -0.14% | 0.01% | 0.02% | -0.55% | 0.21% | 0.35% | -0.01% | |
| AUD | -0.35% | -0.23% | -0.18% | -0.77% | -0.21% | 0.19% | -0.21% | |
| NZD | -0.55% | -0.40% | -0.35% | -0.95% | -0.35% | -0.19% | -0.41% | |
| CHF | -0.15% | 0.00% | 0.04% | -0.55% | 0.00% | 0.21% | 0.41% |
The heat map shows the percentage changes of the major currencies relative to each other. The base currency is selected from the left column and the quote currency from the top row. For example, if you select Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
