Joao Wedson, popular market analyst and founder of the Alphractal analytics platform, shared cautious insights on the Bitcoin market, including potential developments related to Binance’s exchange reserves.

Binance BTC Reserves in Danger – Possible Deep Bear Market?

The Bitcoin market has been in a bear market for the past six months, marked by geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty. During this time, the premier cryptocurrency struggled to establish a sustained uptrend while continually absorbing waves of corrective price action. During the latest surge, Bitcoin prices have recovered to around $65,000, resulting in a net loss of 5.14% over the past seven days. Since then, the market has experienced a bit of consolidation and is currently trading around $66,000.

The realized price of Binance Reserve is ~$60,490. This is the average cost basis of the entire Binance BTC reserve. Below this level, most of this reserve is underwater. This occurred earlier in 2022. The reserve remained in the red for many months during the bear market. But… pic.twitter.com/z6KsQMoQZe

— Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson) March 28, 2026

According to João Wedsonthis recent decline brings Bitcoin closer to a key support level, i.e. the Binance Reserve Realized Price, which represents the average cost of BTC coins held on the exchange. It’s worth noting that the rate is currently $60,490, which is just 9% from the current price level. A drop below this threshold would push a significant portion of Binance’s held supply into unrealized losses, potentially dampening market sentiment and increasing the risk of selling pressure, especially given Binance’s position as the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the world.

Wedson notes that the postulated situation occurred during the 2022 bear market, during which the exchange’s reserve held unrealized losses for months. The general historical trend sees the Binance Reserve realized price as a key support level, the loss of which would expose a bear market to lower price levels and deepen broader losses. In this case, the initial support target is $54,000, which represents the overall price level realized. However, there are still significant opportunities for lower levels as Bitcoin has previously experienced bear market corrections ranging from 70% to 80% from the cycle high. For context, current levels are only 52% off the current all-time high of $126,100.

Bitcoin price overview

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $66,681, up a modest 1.01% over the past 24 hours, although still down 1.2% on a monthly basis. Looking ahead, Coincodex analyst forecasts point to potential growth, with forecasts showing BTC trading at $74,187 over the next five days and around $72,426 over the next. If this is realized, it would mean a renewed augment in momentum and a possible change in market sentiment.