Bitcoin’s Last Line of Defense Revealed: Can BTC Price Still Rise to $40,000?

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Bitcoin is currently trading around $66,400, which is almost 48% below its all-time high of $126,080 set in October 2025, and technical analysis is drawing a line in the sand for correction.

According to a crypto analyst known as Leshka.eth, Bitcoin is now approaching price level that will determine whether this cycle survives or ends in a full reset. That line is $60,000 and whether it holds could shape Bitcoin’s price trajectory for the rest of the year.

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$60,000 as an crucial line of defense

According to cryptocurrency analyst Leshka.eth, the price of $60,000 is currently the most crucial zone for Bitcoin in the current market structure. The analyst describes this level as the final barrier that will determine whether a deeper correction will impact lower price levels.

Bitcoin has been hovering around the $70,000 low region in recent sessions, with the last 24 hours seeing another 3.3% decline. While the company’s current position keeps it comfortably above the $60,000 level for now, the margin is no longer enormous enough to ignore downside risk.

The weekly candlestick chart provided by the analyst shows how previous breakouts from similar structures led to a price crash. However, it is crucial to note that Bitcoin has not lost its $60,000 price level this cycle, with the early February crash bottoming out around $63,000.

BTCUSD is currently trading at $66,114. Chart: TradingView

In this context, the $60,000 level is particularly crucial. This he still acted like solid flooring for the past two months, which has helped maintain a higher price structure between $63,000 and $76,000. This would therefore represent a loss of $60,000 that buyers have lost control an crucial structural level that has supported Bitcoin’s price throughout the current cycle.

Bitcoin price chart. Source: @leshka_eth On X

Macro trend line in every Bitcoin cycle

The broader structure becomes clearer when we look at the long-term trend line drawn across multiple Bitcoin cycles. The trendline, drawn on a weekly candlestick chart from 2018 through the projected year of 2028, connects the deepest cyclical lows that have formed during prolonged bearish price action.

Bitcoin peaked in tardy 2018, crashed and fell to the trend line in 2020 before entering an extended accumulation phase near the lows. It then finally climbed to the top of the cycle in 2021. The same structure repeated itself during the 2022 bear market: Bitcoin fell from its peak, returned to the macro trend line in 2023, accumulated and started a up-to-date cycle, which in October 2025 was at $126,080.

This trend line is currently hovering around the $40,000 price level. According to the analyst, if $60,000 holds, then the cycle will survive. If it breaks, $40,000 will hit bottom and accumulation will start again, Leshka.eth wrote in a post on X.

Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

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